bringing back the glory

This is not a hockey post: Memo from the Travel Desk 1

2012-01-20T09:38:00.001-07:00

Hello faithful readers. Sorry to disappoint but I am hijacking this space for a little while to try and work through some of the craziness that has become my temporary new life in the middle east. I'll get to the Oilers later on, but what really is left to say about their incredible suck?

That photo is a somewhat idyllic shot of my new home and place of learning; Hebrew U in Jerusalem. On the surface it is a lovely campus built on a mountainside. They have been nice to me here so far, even making me a "visiting research fellow" and granting my leftist ass near total access to the campus and its resources. I am living in the dorms, which is already more of a multicultural hodgepodge than all of the city of Kingston put together. Israelis, Japanese, Chinese, me...and the Israelis feature Druze, Christian and Jew. On a day to day basis I hear a minimum of three languages, and usually none of them are English unless I venture out and try to speak with someone.

My new Druze friend, a medical student, has been really great. He's helped me get internet access, found a way to top up my sketchy Israeli mobile phone and is letting me use his kitchen supplies. He calls me "neighbor" in Arabic, and it seems a genuine term of endearment. The others on my floor have been nice enough as well, but few have been as all out kind he has.

UPDATE...

Now onto the bizarre, although I guess from an Israeli standpoint, this is the normal. Guns are everywhere, as are soldiers. So you think to yourselves now, Shepso, stop being so bloody obvious, of course there are?! Yeah, it's true, that is the normal here. The other normal is checkpoints. In the course of my work, I have learned quite a bit on the hyper-securitization of the Israeli state, the near panoptic, biopolitical wet dream for those in power, who use the technology and infrastructure at their disposal to surveil those who have been made other in this society. What I wasn't expecting was the extent to which those inside the state have also been made a part of this architecture. To leave my dorm, I go through a gate. To get onto main campus, I go through a gate, a metal detector and a bag search, every time. Even if it's the same guard who saw me earlier in the day, I go through the process all over again. Headphones out, iPhone turned off, bag passed to armed guard, walk through metal detector, just to get to class in the morning. It's the same to catch a bus to go to Tel Aviv.

This is not to belittle the experience of the Palestinians, whose daily experience is much more than the minor inconvenience of having my bag searched. To quote a good friend and colleague, I am "not actually being made subject to it in the same ways that, say, a Palestinian would." My Jewishness, Canadianness, and Hebrew U student ID shields me from many of the daily humiliations of the checkpoints, though not necessarily the daily grind. There is clearly a difference between the institutional security checks and the actual military checkpoints that are in place throughout the country. I spoke to my mom about this, and she said something like "what do you expect? you know the reasons behind it," and I do, but that doesn't mean I am going to agree. Certainly I am going to find it unsettling and obviously take a position that is critical of such an architecture of control.

Last night I wandered into my new friend's dorm room. He had a couple buddies over, they were playing some soccer game on the PS3, drinking some beers and smoking Argilee (hookah). We talked for a little while. He asked me why I would come all this way to do research and I told him I study the education system and how it pertains to conflict. He laughed and said something like "which one? Here everyone is in conflict. Jews and Arabs, Arabs and Arabs, Arabs and the Arabs not in Israel, Jews and Christians, Arabs and Christians. Sometimes everything works, but everywhere is conflict." I found it odd that he never once used the word Palestinian in his explanation of his world, but didn't want to press. He laughed again as he offered me a pull of the rich, fruit flavored tobacco (which I politely declined) and said, "at least I know you'll be a good neighbor."

Welcome to the middle east...

....

I discovered to my great joy that my subscription to NHL game-center still works over here and watched the condensed version of last night's game. The 10 minutes was all I needed to see. It was awful. I think the actual number of chances the Oilers had could have been counted on one hand, and throughout the 10 minute version of the game, I think I saw 22 seconds of sustained Oiler pressure vs. a constant, near swarming Blues attack. This was after talking up hockey to my new neighbors and telling them how its a fast paced, back and forth game they'll love. We have a plan to get each other into our respective sports and perhaps even our respective clubs by the time I leave this place. If the Oilers continue to play like that, count me out; my new Druze friend doesn't need his first exposure to be during this streak of ineptitude, let alone this season. Ah the joys of fandom.

Go Oilers

SWS

Post Script-On behalf of the rest of the FFT, I want to wish our comrade and friend BCB a speedy recovery from his injuries sustained at the hands of another brutal regime, this one actually from our own back yard. Be well brother.

Contracts!

2011-10-12T13:47:00.003-06:00

Is Hemsky worth a contract extension? Should the Oilers trade him?

Lets assume that the Oilers’ Briantrust would like to resign Hemsky. I do, but do you? What should the contract be?

Here is the list of NHL players that make between 5.5 and 5.0 million dollars: ~~Horcoff~~ (33 years old / $5.5 Million), Kessel (24/ $5.4), Getzlaf (26 / $5.325), Perry (26 / $5.325), Pominville (28 / $5.3), ~~Carter~~ (26 / $5.272), ~~Hossa~~ (32 / $5.275), Ryan (24 / $5.1), ~~Rolston~~ (38 / $5.06), Ribeiro (31 / $5), Gionta (32 / $5), Havlat (30 / $5), Kelser (27 / $5), Plekanec (28 / $5), and Bergeron (26 / $5). The ones that are crossed out either have a—really—long-term contract or are old. The rest have a five or six years left on their contract (except Bergeron: who has 3). Right below this is Alferdsson, Connolly, McDonald, and Umberger all between 4.5 and 5 million a season. People can argue about whether these players are an accurate reflection of Hemsky’s hockey value, but I would say this is not a bad starting place.

There are not a lot of free agents on this list: virtually all of these players where either signed to these contracts by the team that drafted/develop them or where traded for them. This is the position that Hemsky is in with the Oilers (not exactly a home team discount but most of them did not taste the sugary waters of unrestricted free agency). What are the comparables if Hemsky does drink from this magical ocean of money? There is not as many comparisons that have the player going to free agency and getting more than $5.5 million as a winger: Gaborik (29 / $7.5), ~~Kovalchuk~~ (28 / $6.66), ~~Briere~~ (34 / $6.5), Smyth (35 / $6.25), and Cammalleri (29 / $6).

Either way: The contract is basically set between 5 and 6.5 million dollars for about an average of 5 or years (but it could be a hell of a lot longer . . . NHL GMs are crazy).

Hemsky is 28 years old, and lets assume that Hemsky takes a deal which is $5.75 (the middle of the rough guidelines) and is 6 years long: or 34.5 million dollars in all. This means he will have a contract till he is 34 years old—perfect timing not get your last long-term deal. I would think there would be some kind of no-trade clause in there (since Hemsky will be committing to a rebuilding team and giving up the chance to go to free agency).

The structure of the contract makes a big difference. Is it front-end load like we have seen a bunch of contracts recently or a back end load contract like veterans used to sign? I think for buyout reasons (see a convoluted piece I did about that here) or for later trades, I believe the Oilers would want it to be front-end load. Maybe something like this:

	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
Base Salary	$6 Million	$5 Million	$4 Million	$3.5 Million	$3 Million	$3 Million
Bonus	$10 Million
Total	$16 Million	$5 Million	$4 Million	$3.5 Million	$3 Million	$3 Million

This structure allows the Oilers to play roughly half of Hemsky’s total contract out before the extension of Hall, Eberle, and Paarajvi kick in. Regardless of what we sign those three for in the future, we are not paying that much cash for them now. This from a hockey operations perspective could be very, very valuable.

While we are at signing extensions, why not target The Nuge’s bunk’n mate on the road: Ryan Smyth. Offer him a four year extension at 2 million dollars a season; you would need to include a no-trade clause to convince him to sign it. But who cares? That would mean the Oilers are paying Smyth & Hemsky a total of $7.75 over the next four season, or $2.6 million less then they are this season. That is some savings to resign one of the kids (add in with one of Eberle’s or Paajarvi’s current salary it is about $4 million, or enough to get one of them signed to a decently long extension). It is addition through addition!

Comparison Montreal vs. Edmonton

2011-09-15T14:37:00.005-06:00

So today I was having a coffee and a smoke with my roommate Chris. She is a big Habs fan: which is ok by me, since the Bleu Blanc Rouge was a favorite of my late uncle and the team my father grew up watching. Plus they are kind of famous and the only team with as rich a history as the Oil (excuse me Bruins, Detroit, & Islander fans; but lets be realistic). Then I had this idea, stolen from the Genisus over at Copper & Blue, and do a position-by-position comparison between my two ‘favourite’ teams.

We are going to start with the defense or a couple reasons: it is what Derek did in his comparison; I love defense; and to get the disappointment out of the way early. So here is the list of Right Defense.

Montreal	Oilers
PK Subban (0.875)	Tom Gilbert (4.0)
Josh Georges (2.5)	Cam Barker (2.25)
Jaroslav Spacek (3.833)	Andy Sutton (2.125)
Total: 7.208 – 2.403 per player	Total: 8.375 – 2.792 per player

OK, this is embarrassing . . . I hope that Chris does not read this blog since this should give her enough ammunition to make fun of me for weeks if not years. First of all, the Oilers only have one actual right defenseman on this list (the other two are left defense masquerading as being able to play their off side: I am betting $25 that at least one of Baker or Sutton cannot not). The second is that we are spending more per player (than Montreal) in our biggest position of weakness; even if you switch Petry with Sutton, Montreal still spends less and they have an awfully expensive 3^rd pairing option. If you look just at skill (and not money), Montreal has the two best players out of the six—Subban & Georges. Gilbert comes in a distance third, but I think Jarolslav ‘Old Bones’ Spacek is still more dependable than either of Barker or Sutton. This is just Gross . . .

Andrei Markov (5.75)	Ryan Whitney (4.0)
Hall Gill (2.25)	Ladi Smid (2.25)
Alexei Yemelin (0.984)	Theo Peckham (1.075)
Total: 8.984 – 2.995 per player	Total: 7.325 – 2.442 per player

This is getting a little better but still not all that great. I did kinda cherry-pick the left defenseman which make the Oilers look the best, but it is also since these are the players I would pencil in as starting the season (if everyone is healthy) on the port-side. OK, at least the Oilers are spending less money than the Habs, but the Oil also have the worst of the players. Markov is the best of the six players, but Whitney is the next best—by a significant margin—both of these players have severe health risks and I would doubt that both of them play more than 50 games. Gill is more dependable than Smid: again it goes to the Habs. Yemelin has far more upside than Teddy Peck-Man, and the difference in money is so little that Montreal wins this match up again. Overall, the three players from La Belle Province are superior and come in at a reasonable price tag . . . Montreal wins this position again.

Yannick Weber (0.85)	Taylor Chorney (0.735)
Jeff Woywitka (0.65)	Jeff Petry (1.0)
Total: 1.5 – 0.75 per player	Total: 1.735 – 0.868 per player

I have chosen to go with two depth defenders since that is what Derek did in his comparison—also both should play significant amount of games with their respective clubs. To be honest, I think this is about even; both have one good young puck moving Dman (Petry & Weber) at a reasonable price and a tweener (Chorney & Woywitka) that should clear waivers. Maybe Montreal should win this one since they have done this at a better price but lets go with a tie (since I love the Oilers and I love defensemen).

Tomas Plekanec (5.0)	Shawn Horcoff (5.5)
Lars Eller (1.271)	Sam Gagner (2.275)
Scott Gomez (7.357)	Eric Belanger (1.75)
David Desharnais (0.85)	The Nuge (3.775)
Total: 14.478 – 3.62 per player	Total: 13.3 – 3.325 per player

This category is a little harder to do because the depth charts are fucked up. Not the good kind of Fucked Up, but the kind that makes my life harder. Lets start by saying Montreal has the best all around centre in Plekanec . . . his turtleneck power has turned him into a wonderous two-way centre at a reasonable contract (the player that the Oilers were hoping Horcoff would be during the first three years of his giant contract). I would say that the Oilers have the best PKing and faceoff centre in Belanger. Horcoff and Gomez both have a ‘washed-up’ label attached to them after last seasons, but Horcoff is a lot cheaper, so the Oilers win that one. Gagner has more experience than Larry and that should give the Oilers the edge in young offensive centres. The Nuge is just a wild card (could play the season with the Oil, maybe not; could be the best centre on this list in two years but who knows). Desharnais is a filling a spot but is really a tweener. I am going to give this category to the Oilers but by a slim margin: the Oil spend slightly less at this position; they have the best defensive centre; their old man is cheaper and had a better season last year; and the Nuge pushes them over the edge.

Brian Gionta (5.0)	Ales Hemsky (4.1)
Eric Cole (4.5)	Jordan Eberle (1.158)
Andrei Kostitsyn (3.25)	Linus Omark (0.875)
Travis Moen (1.5)	Ryan Jones (1.5)
Total: 14.25 – 3.563 per player	Total: 7.633 – 1.908 per player

Lets start on the fourth line, Moen and Jones have the same amount of money, but one of them is a proven veteran and is better defensively . . . cough, Moen, cough. Returning to the top of the depth chart, Montreal’s Gionta looks better than Hemsky; mainly on ability to stay healthly because I think they both are dynamic game changers. The middle two lines is interesting; Cole & Kostitsyn are more proven players (what ever that means vis-à-vis AK-47) than Eberle and Omark, but I think both pairs have the same amount of offensive ability (all of them) and defensive acumen (with Eberle and Cole having ability and the other two are kind of a liability). Edmonton might win the middle depth based on the price and age of their pair (but that is a big IF). I would go with a tie at right-wing, but at the end of the season Edmonton could be the winner based on price and Montreal could be the winner based on veteran consistency.

Mike Camalleri (6.0)	Taylor Hall (3.75)
Max Pacioretty (1.625)	Ryan Smyth (6.25)
Matheiu Darche (0.7)	Magnus Paajarvi (1.525)
Ryan White (0.625)	Ben Eager (1.1)
Total: 8.95 – 2.238 per player	Total: 12.625 – 3.156 per player

As starboard-side forwards go, Montreal has the best one as of right now: Camallari. I would think that in a few years Hall will be a better offensive star but that is at least one more year away. The Oilers have better depth—especially in the veteran Smyth, who can play both of the special teams and take on tough competition while keeping his head above water. Paajarvi and Pacioretty have the roughly same money and, I would think, have the same boxcars this season (but the Swede-Fin should be better in the long run). Montreal gets advantage in the fourthliners, only, cause they are spending less (& Darche is more defensively responsible than Eager). The Oilers win the Truculence category (if that counts for anything). Overall, the Oilers win this position with more offensive depth and more youth, but they are paying for it against the cap.

Brock Trotter (0.55)	Darcy Hordichuk (0.875)
Andreas Engqvist (0.9)	Gilbert Brule (1.85)
Total: 1.45 – 0.725 per player	Total: 2.725 – 1.363 per player

Now to the depth forwards . . . I really had little idea of who should be the Habs’ depth. I when with Trotter since that is most folks choice and then rounded it out with Engqvist. Trotter is a tweener (with a little, and I mean he is little, KHL experience) while Brule is a former lottery pick that had a shitty year . . . Oilers win that one because of potential. Hordichuk has a specific role (smashing people) while Engqvist is a better ‘hockey’ player . . . I would count that as a tie since Hordichuk is going to get reps and Engqvist is a mystery to me. The price points is clearly on the side of Montreal since they are not going to have bags of money in the press box. Overall I am going with a tie (Brule > Trotter, Hordichuk = Engqvist, 1.45 million > 2.725 million).

Carey Price (2.75)	Devan Dubnyk (0.8)
Peter Budaj (1.15)	The Boozen’ Wall (3.75)
Total: 3.9 – 1.95 per player	Total: 4.55 – 2.275 per player

So, now it comes to the position that most people think is the Oilers’ weakest position. I think it is right defenseman since the Oilers have at least two goaltenders signed (which is one more player in their natural position that the starboard side of the blue). We can say that the Oilers’ starter is cheaper than Montreal’s, but who would rather start Dubnyk over Price. Budaj is a crappy player—Chris was screaming at the TV on free agency day—but he is still better that the old Russian in blue and orange silks this season. Most embarrassing is the cost of the Oilers ineffective duo . . . we spend 0.65 million dollars more than the Habs and they have a starting goaltender (which we do not have) . . . Montreal clear win.

Right Defense	Montreal
Left Defense	Montreal
Depth Defense	Tie
Centre	Oilers
Right Wing	Tie
Left Wing	Oilers
Depth Forwards	Tie
‘Tender	Montreal
Best Overall:	Montreal

A Time For Reflection

2011-09-10T14:38:00.000-06:00

About 18 months ago, a friend came to visit me on his way toMontreal for a funeral. It got me thinking about community, togetherness andsadly, tragedy and how that impacts communities on a more philosophical level,not to mention that more tangible, from the gut emotional space too. I wrote apost talking about the relationship between community and death, which makessense given that my research deals with some of these same inquiries. The postcan be found here. Given the events of the summer tocompletely rock the hockey world, and the fact that I am editing a paper onsimilar subjects with the hope of getting it published in a "legitimate,academic" peer reviewed journal, I am going to revisit some of theseideas...and besides, I haven't written anything here for a while so I may aswell recycle some of my previous good work...it's the academic way.

I should start off by expressing my most sincere condolences to the familiesand friends of those who were lost on the doomed flight to Minsk the other dayon behalf of everyone who writes and is associated with bringing back theglory. I read a particularly poignant tribute from a Dallas Stars blog, which told the story ofa cab driver who was picking up the wife and small children of one of thefallen players, the emotions he conveyed, particularly based on the fact thatthe children had yet to be told that their father had died, that they weregoing to Russia not to see their daddy, but to bury him. The widow andmother must have been going through hell and back just to keep it togetherherself, but trying to shield her children from what was clearly as devastatinga blow as one can receive is dreadful. I immediately found myself in a strangeposition, similar to the sympathy and "Fellow Feeling" BCB explains inthe post I linked to. I will explain why in a moment, first I'll explain the theory.

Fellow Feeling is a part of a greaterconcept explored by German thinker Max Scheler called "A community of feeling." Schelerclaims that in a community of feeling, there is a sense that when members arein pain, each individual feel the same sorrow—as if they are feeling-with aswell as being-with. Immediately in Scheler’s text, he makes the connection,similar to French scholar Jean-Luc Nancy's later assertion that communities are often definedthrough death, linking pain with solidarity and empathy as well as sympathy.Recognizing the capacity for painful circumstances to create and strengthenmemory harkens back to Nietzsche’s assertion of a similar concept in On the Genealogy of Morals(1887/1994), where he describes this process. “A thing must be burnt so that itstays in memory: Only something that continues to hurt stays in memory… Whenman decided to make memory for himself, in never happened without blood,torment and sacrifices” (Nietzsche, 41). A shared process of grief allows thisprocess; the combination of pain, loss and sacrifice act as a catalyst for thestories to be held inside all of the members of the community of feeling, evenif the painful feelings are latent or dormant. To quote BCB, who provided anexcellent unpacking of this concept in his own post:

Thisis when two, or more, individuals directly experience feelings together, asfeelings-in-common. These feelings must be of abstract feelings (Scheler wouldsay spiritual or emotional) and never physical feelings: since we can shareintellectual emotions but we do not have the same body, we can not have sharea physical feeling in this way. Scheler's example is when two parents lose achild: the feeling is one and identical.

Fellow Feelingis a subcategory, one that allows a person not to step directly into the shoesof the person who is feeling, but to have sympathy based on an understanding ofthe emotion. The way one experiences the feeling vs. that of another areclearly subjective and different. In this line of thought, one person isactually suffering while the other is commiserating through a process Schelercalls "emotional identification."

Few things in life are more difficult than telling someoneyou love that someone they love is gone. When my own father passed away under clearly less tragic (but still shitty) circumstances nearly9 years ago, I took it upon myself to tell my younger brother. That was no easytask I can assure you. We were both young at the time, but not nearly so young as these children. The story about the mother not yet telling her childrenreminded me of how I felt, having learned mere minutes before that I had lostmy dad, and that I was on my way home to break the news to my brother and I hadabout 20 minutes to prepare. This brave woman had to take a transatlanticflight and be alone with her thoughts, without the ability to truly share hergrief, her pain or her mourning with anyone. Lots of time to prepare, but noopportunity to commiserate. Though I know you will never read this, I offer youmy story as a form of fellow feeling, and wish you a lot of strength. I can assure you (and whomever else reads this post) that I am not trying to come across as callous, that this is not a meaningless, empty gesture. In so many ways, death defines life. The tragedy in Russia is one of those times.

The summer has been a bad one for hockey, not because ofanything to really do with the playing of the game, but for the community ofhockey players, their families, friends, and the fans. More players have died thissummer in tragic circumstances then I think any of us has ever imagined, andmore attention than ever before has been given to the violence that surroundedthe playoffs in Vancouver, and the knowledge that players who are paid to playthe game have weaknesses and frailties, just like the rest of us. So tothat, I offer up this thought; We are a community here, a disconnected andfragmented global community to be sure, but one whose affinity is drawn from ashared love of a game. In times like this however, this must take us away fromthe game as-such and into a much bigger picture. When you read headlines andsound-bytes about the hockey community, or hear people like Gary Bettmanoffering seemingly endless platitudes about sympathy for the families, thinkabout it for a minute, really think about how these players who we often treatas nothing more than statistics and cap hits, use-value and trade bait, andperhaps through this tragic summer attempt to re-humanize some of the game,some of the people and help to bring about the changes in the culture thathockey will inevitably be associated with after a long, dark off-season.

SWS

Comrade Horcov

2011-08-14T17:52:00.001-06:00

A beauty from the roommate. It is comrade horcov eating a hotdag. She is awesome.

Why a 6th overall pick is valuable?

2011-07-31T09:09:00.006-06:00

There are really only two positions in hockey: centre and defense. I know many of you will disagree and point to very good quantitative evidence that I am wrong. Most likely someone is typing up a reply about the existence of wingers and goalies. Actually, who am I kidding . . . no one is replying since that means someone would be reading this blog.

As an Oiler fan and a rearguard, when I used to play the game, I tend to focus on the Oilers’ blue line (or lack there of). It is hard to not believe in wingers since the return of the Mullet and the holy trinity are joined by Omark and Hemsky—plus a little dash of Eager and randomness (see Jones’ contract). I wouldn’t keep Harkitainen if he be use to unload The Boozen’ Wall; like the fat man / skinny girl let slip a few weeks agao. Man, we could have got a third round pick back, too: stupid, stupid Tambo. I mean I would love to love wingers right now, but I couldn’t care less. Omark is awesome and if they trade him they are an addled mind (price tag & talent). It is hard to give a shit about the goalie position either: unless the Boozen’ Wall goes to jail . . . oh I have never hope for anyone to go to jail before him (and I still think it is a terrible place that we should not send anyone!). PS: he is in jail and that does not seem to be solving the problem either. This leaves only centres to talk about . . . and this sucks.

Depth Chart

Gagner

He is the de facto number one centre: for now. Long term he is either going to be traded to fill a whole at RH defense or in the crease—any handed is fine for the ‘tender. The other route is that Sam and The Nuge form a top two set of centres . . . very shifty & very cerebral, a perfect core for a puck possession team with a couple elite talents on the wings.

Gagner is in real danger of losing first unit PP time and some easy offensive zone draws to The Nuge. I not would be surprised to see them with even PP minutes by the end of the season. It is essential that Gagner steps up and plays well against tougher competition this year. I’d like to see what he could do with Ryan Smith as his left winger and one of those talented RWers (read not Jones).

Horcoff & Beleganer

Horc might be a bit over paid but there is nothing we can do about it; Beleganer is signed to a value contract at under two million.. I just combine the captain’s and the new guy’s contracts together and come up with 3.625 million for 3 season per defensive centre. It is kind of still expensive and there is that final season of Horcoff’s contract, but at least there will be a couple centres in their early 30’s dress in Blue and Orange silks. I think we can expect about 120 to 130 games per season for the next three years between the pair old pivots.

I think they will take the lion share of defensive zone draws and the PK minutes. I could see one of them lost this job over the next few years; if Gagner adds a penalty-killing element to his defensive game or The Nuge takes over some of the harder minutes. Other then that they fit a specific role (defense) and have a decent two way game. They can chip in a few points and are a lot more dangerous around the net then most teams two top defense-first centres. I would pencil both these centres in the ‘bottom six’ even if I expect them to get a lot of minutes at the end of tight games and be mainstays on the penalty kills.

The Nuge

Here is the wild card. He gets his 9 games—and even if he does stay with the NHL team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go play the world juniors. I think he stays but gets sheltered minutes kind of like Segiun did this year but different. I think The Nuge is going to get powerplay time; most likely beginning on the second unit. I would not think it is unfathomable that Renney would protect him late in the games. The coach running the other three more veteran centres at evens, and The Nuge getting power play time and the occasional shift. If we could break down qual-comp by period, my guess is the former first overall doesn’t get protected as much in the first period or two of games, but in the third—if everyone is health—he often goes a while sitting on the bench between shifts.

I say he makes the team because he gets the ‘push’. The Nuge has some very real competition for ice time with the three centres above him . . . maybe too much? What really is going to affect his fate is the amounts of injuries the Oilers’ suffer at this position.

Brule

Most folks write Brule off. He is damaged.

I think he will come back with a little bit of vengeance and fight for 4th line minutes. He needs to come back as a professional and accept the press box at the beginning of the season, and chip in when needed. He keeps players like Lander and VV down in the AHL until the bodies start adding up in the wounded tent.

A Reflection on Defense Men

2011-07-06T12:26:00.005-06:00

One of my favorite French writers Georges Sorel, once said: “So little are we prepared to understand pessimism that we generally employ the word quite incorrectly: we call pessimists people who are in reality only disillusioned optimists” (Reflections on Violence, P. 9). He goes on to say a bunch about pessimism and politics that I find to be quite thought provoking.

I am not going to talk to you about those here, but rather point out why the phrase I quote above is relevant to Oilers Hockey. (You can find a bunch more interesting reads about pessimism about hockey here or here, by the way.) But I am going to tell you that I am disillusioned optimist vis-à-vis the Edmonton Oilers.

I want to be excited and cheer for the Oilers; when I watch Hall or Pääjärvi, I cannot stop myself from thinking that “this is the greatest thing since sliced bread.” The optimism abounds. I call hockey my ‘soap opera’ since I follow it everyday and it gives me something to cheer about. Classic optimist behaviour?

I am just disillusioned since there still is a crappy blueline: easily the biggest weakness in getting to a playoff contending team. It has been like this since the summer of 2006 . . . it is not getting better by itself, here. It is hard to turn on the television, year after year, to watch games (that will end far after midnight) knowing the once mighty Oil have a blueline in the bottom third of the league. Sometimes we have the worst blueline in the entire league. Reason for Disillusionment?

Here is the line up as we have it, based on a bunch of arguments other places.

Left Defense

Right Defense

Whitney (22+ min/Not-the-toughest comp./#1 PP)

___________(22+ minutes/experience playing toughest comp./1st unit PK)

Smid (18+ min./maybe can play toughest comp./2nd unit PK)

Gilbert (20+ min./has played toughest comp./used in all special teams)

Barker (12-16 min/third pairing-offensive/some PP time)

Peckham (12-16 min/third pairing-old skool/no special teams)

Sutton (12-16 min/third pairing-can hurt peeps/maybe PK)

Petry is not on my Oilers Team. Sorry all those that love him. Petry would be my first call up. First and foremost, Petry does not fit a description of having experience 22 minutes a night playing the toughest the opposite can throw at him actual NHL career. Plus Petry is a better PP than PK man, imo. The Pitcher’s Son can clear waivers both ways: I doubt Barker or Sutton would survive re-entry waivers, and no one else (but Chorney) would survive the hook going down. Imagine, an Oilers blueline that could afford to send Petry down to the AHL. When injuries do hit, Renney will have a defenseman that could come and fill in at a multiple of situations. There is no other player but Petry that can be shuffled back-and-forth while playing at such a high level. This means what 20 games of Petry being in the minors to start the season and maybe a few more games in the triple AAAs, if, the NHL club avoids a major injury or two near the end of the season. The more minutes in the AHL will mean more development at all the special teams, strength & conditioning, and lots of even strength experience with the toughest of AHL competition for when Petry comes to the big leagues.

Oh, sign me up for that scenario. Plus this means we have to fill in that other defenseman position from a trade or free agency (since Petry is better than the rest of the AHL defensemen). An ‘actual’ NHL defenseman, at minimum.

Washington

It seems like they have spent too much money and are over the cap and have a lot of defensemen. The thing is that Poti is unlikely to return in my opinion—lets set the betting at 50-50: so really, without Poti, the Caps have just over 1 million to spend, one Karl Alzner to sign, and 6 NHL defensemen under contract. Carlson won’t be traded; Hamrlik can’t be traded; Erskine has a nice contract; the rest of them . . . anything is possible. If, I was Tambo, and I am not, I’d be calling Mr. McPhee.

Denis Wideman shoots right and can play both sides of the rink I am told. That sounds nice. Quickly from Behind the Net: last year Wideman played 16.91 TOI at even strength and had a 0.80 Points per 60; 3.8 power play TOI, and 3.36 Points per 60; plus had another 2.32 Penalty Kill TOI. That is a lot of icetime, and not bad production. I am not going to look up his experience against tough competetion, but lets assume it sucks. He got a contract just a hair less then 4 million, and is a UFA next year.

He is worth trading for by the Oilers, at the right price. He was just traded for a 3^rd round in 2011 and an ECHL player or some bag of pucks. Just make sure the deal is not too much more, but still an upgrade from Washington’s perspective: maybe a good looking forward prospect and a 3^rd round in 2012. As for the slightly-off-blue-chipper, I’d suggest (in this order): Toni Rajala, Tyler Pitlick, Chris VandeVelde, Curtis Hamilton, or Anton Lander. They all ain’t going to all make the show . . .so come on Brass, display to us why you are worth your money: choose the one that you don’t think will make the Oilers and toss it in the ring for a part we need. I really think a promising second round draft choice and this years third is going to get McPhee talking real hard on the phone.

Maybe, just skip the McPhee part. The Oilers could deliver an RFA contract to Karl Alzner! He is not the experienced player we are looking for now, and not a right defenseman, but I still think the Oilers should look into this. It would mean most likely trading a Left Dman (Whitney or Smid, or maybe one of the three on the bottom pairing . . . ok, anyone but Gilbert or Petry) but the age group would grow around the ‘core’ and add a defenseman to go along with Petry at the blueline ‘core’. It would make the team better on in the long term and this year, but just not as good as I want the blue line to be this year.

It would have to be as large as possible a contract, but not too much and give away the farm. The compensation for a second round contract ends at about 3.1 million a season, and any more then five years does not count in figure out compensation. A $15.5 or $12.4 payout over five or four years is what would take for this to happen. And it still not happen, if I was McPhee, I’d gladly pay Alzner 3.1 a year not to let him walk. I think the Oiler brass could make the contract unpalatable for the Washington Ownership.

Here is what I’d do, make it a five year contract with most of it coming in bonus money. The average salary would be one million for each of the five years, and the rest of it comes in signing bonus. This way the player is protected from the possibility of a lockout effecting their salary. Make the first signing bonus (say 11 days after the contract is signed) for 7 million dollars, and the second signing bonus paying out 3.5 million on July 1^st2012 at midnight. If Alzner is signed to a RFA contract then Mr. McPhee cannot trade him until July 1^st 2012, and will be forced to pay out eleven point five million dollars in that first year of the contract. That is a lot of money for the ownership to swallow even if the Caps get the player for the next four for basically nothing.

Grading Tambo: Why is Everyone thinking this is a Success?

2011-07-02T11:46:00.006-06:00

Here is Lowetides’ wish list (or really the basic things all fans can see that the Oilers need) and I am going to base my grading on it. So, folks are pretty excited about the Oilers’ haul over the last week . . . I’d say they are. Me: not so much. Is this a step in the right direction? Yes, but it is a small step.

Interlocutor: Bloody Hell!! What do you mean? How can the Oily Brass make a forward play, but it is not a long enough ball for you? Fuck’n twit.

Well, the Oilers finally started to get ‘actual’ NHL players, but the problem is that not enough of them are NHL players or they play the wrong position.

Interlocutor: You whine like a babe without his mother’s tit about getting a checking centre that can win draws and once you do you complain. Fuck’n Oilers Fans are worst then those c*nts in East London that support the Blues.

Well, I am not complaining about Éric Bélanger; I think that he is a good pick up, even if the term is one year too long (but alas we were bound to over pay in some way). That is a good deal (might I say great deal if it was completed about two years ago) . . . with Bélanger we get a six-foot centre that can kill penalties and has 53.9% faceoff percent over his career. The thing is that I do not give extra points to Tambo for this signing: he scores a C+ since it is something he needed to do (answering one question right on a tests does not guarantee an A, but just keeps you score going in the right direction). Now if Tambo would have found a bigger centre or one with some more offensive (plus the PK and Faceoff ability) he would have got some extra bonus points, but those players really aren’t available this year.

Interlocutor: What about Arnott? Or are you still mad about the shit that he said during his first tour in E-ville?

Arnott does not have the faceoff ability that the Oil need and Bélanger can provide so he is not really in the same camp, but I would have loved to watch that big frame skate around with Omark and Pääjärvi. But on to the second point: truculence . . .

Interlocutor: Now you got to be chuffed about this. Bob's your uncle: we got two hooligans!!

I like the Ben Eager signing, I really do (especially since it means that the beloved SMac never sets his feet on the ice at Rexall again). Eager is one of these ‘actual’ NHL players we have been looking for: he can skate (hence make a few big hits on the forecheck and he can stand up for his team mates). His contract is one year too long (similar to Bélanger) but it is really not that much at 1.1 Million: hence could be bought out, traded, or hide in the minors if we need to. The other side of the truculence is not so good: Darcy Hordichuk. Well he has the ability to give a good quote—an element sorely lacking since the departures of Pens and Marty Sakic—I just don’t think he is a real NHL player. A good AHL player for sure, and better then I could have ever dreamed of being? Yes, so if he is good in the room and doesn’t play every night he should be fine . . . he is an o.k. 13^th man and paid like one at that (under a million on a one year deal).

So Tambo has only scored two out of five. Bélanger is a player that we desperately needed, so he gets a point there. Eager and Hordichuck are an up grade over SMac/Stortini/JFJ, and Tambo earns another point there . . . but not any bonus points since these pick ups are one-dimensional: a defensive-only centre and some fists that can skate. There is nothing over and above the basic answers to these questions.

Interlocutor: But you got to admit that transferring for the Mullet-Man’s rights was cracking!

Yes, Tambo trading for Ryan Smyth was an excellent move, but one that fell into his lap. I am not going to bitch about the fact that we tried to sell the Kings some damaged gods, cause I’d think they would do the same to us (given the chance). Symth is the biggest part of the up grade, imo. He really gives Renney options: he is a player that can play the toughs, can PK, and can help on the PP. Beauty! But again no bonus points: Fraser could have been put in the AHL if everyone beat him out (and would have made that team better) or been a 13^th forward . . . it is not really addition by subtraction—but it does clear up one contract space, I guess, so that is some kind of silver lining. If Tambo signed either Smytty or Hemsky to an extension at reasonable dollars (say the former at 2 years at 2 Million a season & the latter to maybe 5 years deal with about a 27 million dollar overall payday), I’d have given him extra points here too.

Interlocutor: Claiming the Smyth deal was jammy is a little wankery. Tambo has done a good, if not great, job filling three o’ the five conditions . . . that is 66% in my books or a pass and you have not even got to the Defense Men . . . you a mug to think that he can’t ‘pass’ this test.

Well, I have been complaining about the lack of ‘actual’ NHL defensemen for a while now: come to think about it, complaining about Dman is basically a full time occupation over here at this blog. Do I think Tambo fixed this today? NO!

Andy Sutton basically replaces Jim Vandermeer: an over-paid veteran that is physical but on the downside of their career. So losing a player type like Vandermeer and replacing it with Sutton is a wash. There is no upgrade here, as we still have an old seventh defenseman (actually we have three 7^th Dmen: Sutton, Petry, and Peckham . . . only one should be in the line up each night if the Oilers are looking to win but we got at least two dressed for each match as it stands).

Interlocutor: Fuck’n Wanker. Do you think getting real blue liners is as easy as going for a pull on a pub-crawl? They tossed of Foster to sunny California and pick up a former #4 overall section as well . . . what do you think about that? It has got to be worth a mark in your grading.

I would rather have Foster than Sutton: both had terrible seasons last year, and while Sutton can hit Foster should be able to score more this year—both are brutally in their own defensive zone if their numbers from last year tell us anything. This just comes down to age: Foster is younger, hence more likely to rebound, and Sutton was basically what we hope Peckham will turn into.

Cam Barker is slow and has been terrible since going to the Twin Cities. I hope he can turn it around this year, but look at the signing (2.25 Million for one year, and then Barker is an RFA). I guess it is good to get him when he is still a RFA, we have his rights if he turns around this season but that is an expensive contract to qualify. The problem is that Barker’s top end, for this season, is basically a number four defenseman, or the weaker link on a second pairing. That is what Smid is!! I am unconvinced that Barker is an ‘actual’ NHL defender that can play in the top four at even-strength: he has the pedigree but not the track record . . . I wonder which most GMs would rather have.

Overall, Tambo added two bottom pairing Dmen and traded away one. That is a crowded bottom end of a roster with Barker, Smid, Sutton, Peckham, and Petry. All of them should be battling for playing time on the bottom pairing, with maybe two (Smid & Barker) having the ability to take some second paring minutes if someone gets hurt. The Oil still have one of the weakest bluelines in the entire league, if Tambo wanted to score points, with me, here he would have need to add at least one top 4 Dman but maybe two ‘actual’ NHL players to get full marks. Signing Harry Potter to a two-way deal helps out OKC, but does nothing for the NHL depth. The addition of Sutton & Barker, and the subtraction of Foster give him 0.25 out of 1 for me. This brings Tambo’s total score to 3.25 out of 5.

Interlocutor: I think your demands are a little up-market for the team that plays in the Siberia of Canada. What is the last question that Tambo has to answer?

Goaltending! Nothing on that front.

Interlocutor: OK, I’ll agree with you there (but who knows . . . maybe the Boozen’ Wall will play like he once did or Double D might step into his own). Either way 3.25 out of 5 is 65% . . . that is a good grade from my grade school days.

Well, I am a Teaching Assistant for the last couple years, and I told all my students that 66% is average. They always get mad about this, since they were all eighty plus students in high school and now in uni they are getting sixties. But they were above average in high school but now they are only average at university. Same as Tambo: if he was in Hockey Canada or the CHL then maybe fixing three of the five holes in your line up would be considered great, but this is the big leagues so GM are expected to ace all the question or at least get above 75% if they want a real ‘pass’ in my books.

Fixing the truculence problem should not be that hard . . . it is like having a few multiple choice questions on the test . . . even if you just guess you should be able to get the right answer about 25% of the time and these questions are not that difficult (they just test if you read the textbook). Dealing with the defensive centre is a must for a team like the Oilers. In the past Tambo didn’t even attempt to answer the question, or, last year, maybe Fraser was just like writing down everything you know for a short answer but never getting to the root of the question. Having Smyth fall into your lap is similar to having the one question that actually interests you show up on the test: you never studied for this one since it was the only time you did not fall asleep in class. Finding real NHL Dmen is the hardest thing to do—the essay question at the end of the test. I guess Tambo gets part marks for drawing up an outline, but he never actually wrote anything down in full sentences. Lastly, Tambo forgot to answer the question about the ‘tenders. I started to run after him shouting that they did not finish the test, but Tambo—like most students—just kept walking away to get to the pub a little early. Overall, Tambo gets a pass or an average mark for Free Agency and Trades this week. Maybe he’ll get a few more marks in the future (if Barker or Sutton really steps up) or if the Nuge wins the Calder trophy. I have marked good students down before and I will again in the future, but most of the time it is for their own good.

Management of time and assets

2011-05-29T16:24:00.008-06:00

This is Ryan "Tubthumper" Jones. He falls down a lot. Sometimes he falls down even when he scores goals. According to some, he is a quality third line player who has the ability to play either side and move up and down the roster. According to others, despite the puck going in the net from time to time, he is not a very good hockey player. This is somehow worthy of a two year deal at allegedly over $3 Million total. I don't get it. Ryan Jones has all of the external attributes worthy of such a contract; he's a nice, hardworking guy with a hell of a mullet, (something sorely missed in these parts, at least by me) and he works his ass off. That said, he is a black hole in the underlying numbers and a defensive liability. However, at 2 years with this approximately $1.5 Mil cap hit, he is not going anywhere.

Interlocutor: But we like him! He has sweet hair and scores a lot. Why the lack of love? You don't know anything about playing hockey. You're a qualitative sociologist who should be writing your dissertation proposal and yet you cite a source filled with advanced statistics to illustrate why you think he's bad?! You sir are a hypocrite, and a terrible bastard.

Oh jesus, not you again. Why do you have to show up and make me angry? Ok, look, I get it; people really like Jonesy, but this team has so many tweeners and one-season wonders on the payroll (see Brule, Gilbert and the now bought out Mini Magic for further reference) that it seems foolish to lock in this sort of percentage riding player for anything longer than a year. The numbers all seem to suggest that the dude got really lucky this year and his shooting percentage will fall back to earth. Plus, one can only hope that the team doesn't get so decimated by injuries that he won't have to play as many minutes as this past season. Furthermore, he is not so good at defence, which is what not you would hope to find in your bottom six.

Interlocutor: What do you know about defence? Why do you think you're a better person for both asset and time management than either 3.0 or the former #4?

I don't. Never claimed to. I just know that Jones being here for 2 years with that kind of a term is a risk for a bad team to take. He doesn't seem like a tradable asset at this point, he eats up roster space that could be used to procure someone better in the offseason or block someone like Teemu from making the big club in the fall simply due to his cap hit.

Interlocutor: I call bullshit-if he's kicking anyone off the roster, it's either Smac or JFJ, not Harski.

You sir are an optimist. I don't like the term. The player I could take or leave, but the 2 year deal seems a tad risky. Don't play the "we let Glencross walk away for nothing and traded Brodziak for magic beans" argument either-this player is more Brule than GlenX, and as such, I am cautious. Is this a flash in the pan, or can Ryan Jones actually overcome what our friends at the Copper N Blue have actually termed "the Ryan Jones Effect?" 18 goals on a terrible hockey team with very few NHL calibre players is nice, but when all the underlying numbers say that such a feat is unlikely to reoccur, I have little faith that it will. On the other hand, any player who legitimately wants to play in Edmonton might just be worth the benefit of the doubt, at least in the short term. Ryan Jones may not be the best player on the team, but he's got the combination of hair and heart that makes me hopeful he might beat the math.

Go Oilers

SWS

Lets Retire 39!!!

2011-05-26T13:35:00.001-06:00

It is the end of an era for most of the Oilers fans (well those my age). See I grew up watching the Boys on the Bus, but I was not quite 9 years old when the Moose raised the cup for the final time. My formative years were spent watching the Oilers of the 90’s: so me Doug Weight was the star player that I have the most memories about. Man was he a beauty.

So what am I going to be writing about today is why Doug Weight’s 39 should hang in the rafters of Rexall Place. The problem is that the Oilers have to wait till the HHOF recognizes him, before he joins them in the rafters. If that ever happens (and as a betting man, I would not take that bet right now).

I went to the HHOF this spring with my roommate Chris and a fellow named Sachia. Sachia once was the founder of this blog (so he should apologize to all of you right now), and a dear friend of mine. He was quite up set that I had never visited it in the three years I have lived in southern Ontario. So me made me go.

During that trip, Chris and I got a little upset about the HHOF. It started with the sexist jerseys in the women’s hockey section: there was a 1998 “Japan Ladies” jersey hanging there, but no Wickenheiser jersey. No Hayley-Fuckin’-Wickenheiser! I guess we could have taken this snub with a grain of salt since she is not retire yet, but there was other international jerseys of current players (Chara’s Slovak jersey springs to mind).

Next in the Great Hall (or what ever they call it) we noticed that Pat LaFontaine was inducted before Valeri Kharlamov. This is when we really got upset. So we end up talking to a nice Russian couple and a lovely Finnish gentleman—but mainly the Fin—about the clear racist tendencies of the folks that put people in the Hall (I know that some folks would argue that this is national chauvinism, instead of racism, but we are firm believers that there is a strong connection between the two). It was pretty funny as the HHOF staff started looking at us with a confused expression (I guess most people don’t call their employer racist very often while in the presence of the Stanley Cup).

So why the tangent? Well, because I do not see a reason why Doug Weight should not be in the HHOF! I am going to look at three players—who I believe should barely, or not at all, be in the HHOF—and compare them to Mr. 39.

Dino Ciccarelli (2010)

GP: 1232, Goals: 608, Assists: 592, Points: 1200 (0.974 Pts/Game)

GP: 141, Goals: 73, Assists: 45, Points: 118 (0.837 Pts/Game)

Zero Stanley Cups, Jersey retired in London (Knights) only

Cam Neely (2005)

GP: 726, Goals: 395, Assist: 299, Points: 694 (0.956 Pts/ Game)

GP: 93, Goals: 57, Assists: 32, Points: 89 (0.957 Pts/Game)

Zero Stanley Cups, Jersey retired by Boston

Pat LaFontaine (2003)

GP: 865, Goals: 468, Assist: 545, Points 1013 (1.171 Pts/Game)

GP: 69, Goals: 26, Assist: 36, Points 62 (0.899 Pts/Game)

Zero Stanley cups, jersey retired by Buffalo

Doug Weight

GP: 1238, Goals: 278, Assists: 755, Points 1033 (0.834 Pts/Game)

GP: 97, Goals: 23, Assists: 49, Points 72 (0.742 Pts/Game)

One Stanley Cup

OK, so Weight’s numbers are a little lower then these three players. The fact that Dough Weight did not play in the high flying days of the 80’s and did play in the dark days of the trap has to be taken into account when looking at these numbers. So Doug’s numbers are lower, but it is a different era, but he still did get over 1000 pts. Only 79 players have ever done that, and only 28% of those with 1000 are not in the HHOF (as I list the players we will see that some of them will get in eventually so that number really should be lower). Dave Taylor, Bobby Smith, Bernie Nicholls, Brain Propp, Steve Larmer, Doug Gilmor, Dave Anderychuk, Adam Oates, Phil Housley, Dale Hunter, Brain Bellows, Pierre Turgeon, Pat Verbeek, Vincent Damphousse, Joe Niewendyk, Alexander Mogilny, are eligible and not the HHOF. But who from that list actually has a Stanley Cup? Larmer, Bellows, Niewendyk, Gilmor, & Mogilny: That is it. Also, Jaromir Jagr, Mark Recchi, Mike Modano, Sergei Fedorov, Teemu Selanne, Rod Brind’Amour, Keith Tknachuk, Nicklas Lindstom, Alexei Kovalev, Jerome Iginla, and Joe Thornton are either still active or not eligible yet (and a bunch of them will get in one day). So with points alone, I guess you could make a case that Doug Weight deserves to be in the HHOF, but also you could make a point that he does not. Lets move on

Also we have to take in to consideration the fact Doug Weight won the Stanley Cup. I am of the opinion that if you don’t win the Stanley Cup, you should not be considered eligible for the HHOF. That is right even in the 30 team NHL: No Championship = No Hall of Fame status. I’d make exceptions for older Russian players that won many international titles but were not allowed to play in the NHL and women who have won major (and a lot of) international events. Sorry I know that is biased but I do not care. I know folks are going to say that he was a rental player and got hurt during the playoff, but he still got the right number of games to get his name on the cup and that is an accomplishment that should not be taken away from. Plus he also won a silver medal at the 2002 Olympic Games & won the World Cup of Hockey in 1996. Those are large team accomplishments as well. OK so Weight does consider HHOF acclaim in this category.

So I do not know if Doug Weight will ever get in the Hall of Fame, but I think he deserves it. Also I want him in so the Oilers can do the right thing and retire his number 39.

What did Garth Snow Do?

2011-05-16T14:58:00.005-06:00

The Case of Michael Grabner

“Michael Grabner’s five-year deal in Long Island is the weirdest I’ve seen in a while. The Calder Trophy finalist (with 34 goals) gets a $1-million raise every year of the contract. It’s a $3-million cap hit, but he’ll only make $1 million in salary next season.“ — JIM MATHESON

Bought out in 2013

They buyout is only 1/3 across six years plus 3 million for the two years before + a big total of 7 Million over eight years for 2 seasons. That is a lot of savings if Grabner had regressed over two years of his contract. “Not risk, no reward,” mutters a grey haired back up goalie, as the other folks discuss his job and whether he should keep it (stupid GMing by committee). Either Snow dangling from a thread or some Player Agent willing to be treated like an S&M sub, thinks “Sure some team might end up giving him a contract and it bites us, but he’ll most likely will take a contract that ‘mother’ Russia will give him, and he still has 3 million coming straight from the Wang). Plus it helps us reach the floor for the last two years without spending real or actual money. This is profit sharing and we are hoarding, I might be in for a raise if I save Megalomaniac that runs this franchise this much money.”

SEASON	SALARY	CAP HIT	BUYOUT	SAVINGS	BUYOUT CAP HIT
2013-14	$3,000,000	$3,000,000	$666,667	$2,333,333	$666,667
2014-15	$4,000,000	$3,000,000	$666,667	$3,333,333	-$333,333
2015-16	$5,000,000	$3,000,000	$666,667	$4,333,333	-$1,333,333
2016-17	$0	$0	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667
2017-18	$0	$0	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667
2018-19	$0	$0	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667

This is not too bad. The owner wants us to win in the new building and the budget only got a minor raise, the beleaguered GM is sure that by the 2013-14 season 666, 666 thousand dollar contracts will be right around the league minimum or even lower. So it is not that much of a penalty for making a mistake; as well, the husk of a man will saved his boss a bunch of money after he spent it trying to do the rebuild right. There is room to spend an extra 1.33 million dollars, hopefully enough to convince a veteran centre that they would rather suit up in New York with a bigger payday for one year for the third line.

Bought out in 2014

So it is 6-Millon in actual cash for the first three years of Grabner’s contract, while carrying a 3 million dollar cap hit for 3 years (save for the first two years and never paid more then it is worth). I guess a penny-pinching Mr. Snow could get out of his expensive years by buying him out if no body will trade for him. “That is it! We will do Yashin all over. It will be brilliant, and I’ll go down in the record books as being an innovator . . .”

SEASON	SALARY	CAP HIT	BUYOUT		SAVINGS	BUYOUT CAP HIT
2014-15	$4,000,000	$3,000,000		$1,500,000	$2,500,000	$500,000
2015-16	$5,000,000	$3,000,000		$1,500,000	$3,500,000	-$500,000
2016-17	$0	$0		$1,500,000	-$1,500,000	$1,500,000
2017-18	$0	$0		$1,500,000	-$1,500,000	$1,500,000

Oops. I guess I could use the two cap hits in 2016 to 2018 to help get me to the as savings like I did with in the over the first few years of the contract. I guess if I am a couple parts away from the playoffs I’ll have 3 million a season to spend instead of dressing Grabner; but I’ll only save 3 million for the owner instead of eight if I did this a year earlier. Plus I have a minor penalty on my cap hit—if I am trying to compete and spend money over the following two years (when Mr. Wang’s castle and ice-rink going to be paid for)! “Do I even have a job by now” wonders Mr. Snow, while in the corner his Successor is calculating Grabner’s buyout cap hit for next year when he is in charge.

Bought out in 2015

If my some chance the Back Up Goalie still has a job, the buyout is 2/3 spread over 2 years—plus the 10 million for the four years before =ing for a grandee total of 13 & 1/3 million dollars. Spread over 6 years for four seasons of playing or 2.22 million dollars player for a cap hit of 3 million. You have been carrying him for over four seasons with him getting more expensive each year. You are no longer saving on the cap hit, and cannot see yourself spending five million dollars on a three million dollar cap hit for a crappy third line player. Most likely Mr. Wang’s caddy and close personal friend / V.P. of Marketing and Video Scouting, is buyout Grabner as his first official act. Lets look at the cap hit:

SEASON	SALARY	CAP HIT	BUYOUT	SAVINGS	BUYOUT CAP HIT
2015-16	$5,000,000	$3,000,000	$1,666,667	$3,333,333	-$333,333
2016-17	$0	$0	$1,666,667	-$1,666,667	$1,666,667

Well the cap hit is better then last year: saving us 1.7 million in actual money and evening out for the cap hit for this year, and a minor penalty for the season following that. That is not too bad a pile of shit to deal with: “Especially since heaping pile of wasted contract space is one of the reasons why you got the job (plus you get to show how you saved some money in week one). Thank the sweet Wang, the choice of a crazy backup goalie didn’t handicap me for three years.” –A Desperate and Under Qualified General Manager says in the Big Apple.

Some comparisons (this is a Oiler Blog after all):

1) Grabner’s contract is very similar to Hemsky’s last one in structure. Of course significantly being in less in the overall amount, with our Lovely Czech making the proper amount in his skill level in a comparison with Grabner (hmh. agh. Two-way play, mrm.). As they go on in years they make more money and it is essentially a preformative-based contract, or a contract that is based of the on ice play of the individual since the player could be bought out at anything and be denied the biggest part of the contract.

2) The differenced saved between each year is quite divergent. A smart GM could trade him, barring that buy him out and actually save a lot of money on a contract in the third and fifth years of Grabner’s contract—maybe, the Austrian Phenom could be traded for by another team exactly for that reason (see Vandermeer deal this year in a Edmonton context). He saves you money on the cap, and, who knows, he might turn out to be a player. Then the deal looks awesome, save on the cap when he is further developing and get a couple bargain years when he is entering his prime (his 27th and 28^th years of age).

3) In every scenario, even if you pay the entire contract, you get Grabner for two seasons at one and two million dollars, most likely below what he is worth right now (1.5 each year for two and your RFA rights) and you get the contract done right around the time when the press jumps on the story about the new arena. Oh, he was the best oddity that showed up on your roster last year. Selling hope my friends, and we know about this in all the places people cheer for the Oilers. Selling Hope sucks.

4) This is a far better deal then having a front end loaded contract. For example Horcoff has a five year contract as well and his salary decreases each year: 6.5 for two years, a single season at 6 followed by one at four then at 3 (a total of 26 over five years). These three charts of Horcoff’s buyouts, below, represent a contract that is about twice as large as Grabner’s contract (at $15 million over 5 years).

2012-13

SEASON	SALARY	CAP HIT	BUYOUT	SAVINGS	BUYOUT CAP HIT
2012-13	$6,000,000	$5,500,000	$1,444,444	$4,555,556	$944,444
2013-14	$4,000,000	$5,500,000	$1,444,444	$2,555,556	$2,944,444
2014-15	$3,000,000	$5,500,000	$1,444,444	$1,555,556	$3,944,444
2015-16	$0	$0	$1,444,444	-$1,444,444	$1,444,444
2016-17	$0	$0	$1,444,444	-$1,444,444	$1,444,444
2017-18	$0	$0	$1,444,444	-$1,444,444	$1,444,444

2013-14

SEASON	SALARY	CAP HIT	BUYOUT	SAVINGS	BUYOUT CAP HIT
2013-14	$4,000,000	$5,500,000	$1,166,667	$2,833,333	$2,666,667
2014-15	$3,000,000	$5,500,000	$1,166,667	$1,833,333	$3,666,667
2015-16	$0	$0	$1,166,667	-$1,166,667	$1,166,667
2016-17	$0	$0	$1,166,667	-$1,166,667	$1,166,667

2014-15

SEASON	SALARY	CAP HIT	BUYOUT	SAVINGS	BUYOUT CAP HIT
2014-15	$3,000,000	$5,500,000	$1,000,000	$2,000,000	$3,500,000
2015-16	$0	$0	$1,000,000	-$1,000,000	$1,000,00

Even if you double Grabner’s contracts (which is not quite far to him), you still see that the cap his it less then Horcoff’s. For example, in there third year buy outs cap penalty compart is Grabner’s double total with a 1.333 million cost to Horcoff’s cap penalty is 1.44 million in that imaginary scale: plus there is no years that GM get a cap credit back from the NHL. If you look at the fourth year buyout, Grabner’s contract save the owner 3 million real dollars on the contract and Horcoff’s contract only rescue them 2.335 million in actual cash. That is not including the difference of the salaries in relationship to each other, which would show that the owner recovered a significant percent of the overall actually money in the contracts (Grabner’s at 20% and Horcoff’s at 9%). In the first two years, Grabner’s contract should be a deal and Horcoff is in his overpaid part of the contract (so they would need to perform): and that is the kicker if the players are bought out then the backend loaded contracts save money in profit-sharing while the contracts with up front cash end up paying into the profit-sharing. Without doing any proper math, I think that demonstrates that the buyout situation is better in a contracts that increase in actual gold transferring hands instead of a contract that decrease in paid cash over time.

Draft 2011: Part 1

2011-04-21T14:03:00.005-06:00

Sorry, I know it has been a while since I last posted things. So to all four of my readers here is a new blogpost!

Trading Down

There is a lot of talk about trading down at this years draft. Jon Willis does a very nice piece here: which is mainly about trading down with the 1^st pick so we can add that and trade up with the 19^th. It is a strategy but not the one I would be using if I was the Oiler Brass (PS: for the record, I do not see Tambo doing anything except keeping the first overall ‘cause it will help his image). The strategy that I propose is to trade down to get some of the parts that we need next season while still ensuring that we get a piece for the future. So I am going to look at the teams with a lottery pick to see what and who would be a trading partner:

2^nd overall pick, or Colorado: I see Mile High team being the least likely to trade up . . . they already have a top two pick, are in rebuilding mode (with a couple very good picks in the first round), & do not have cap space problems. But if they came and offer either Jay Clement (at 1.45 million a season) or the 11^th overall pick plus the 2^nd overall pick for our number one pick I’d do it in a heartbeat. The Oilers would either get a) our third line centre that can win draws and—still—have either Nugent-Hopkins or Larsson for the pipeline, or b) one of those future studs and another high pick to maybe get back top ten with another deal / take someone that falls out of it. The other possibility I would be sniffing around would be Paul Stastny (at 6.6 million); I know this is a long-shot and there would have to be more going back, but there might be some rumblings that he doesn’t want to stay in Colorado (here). What about 1^st overall pick & Cogliano & prospect for the 2^nd overall & Stantsy . . . dare to dream?

3^rd overall pick, or Florida: I see Dave Tallon being a player at this year’s draft. He will want to make a splash and probably pick up another couple picks—if his history means anything. I think he would like nothing more then to scoop up the 1^st overall draft choice and anoint some poor kid his messiah for the tenure of his reign (then maybe go for the coup and pick up a few 3^rd round picks by trading down latter in the draft or send away a vet or two). So, I’d be on his phone trying to convince him to trade Stephen Weiss (3.1 Million) & 3^rd overall pick for the top selection at the draft. Maybe there would have to be a few extra parts (like 3^rd/4^th round picks or prospects) going each way, but this is do-able in my opinion.

4^th overall pick, or New Jersey: I do not see Lou doing anything: he doesn’t need to make a splash but he needs to make the playoffs next year. I think he is going to stay pat and pick Sean Couturier (who is big and talented but falling for some reason). He is a sharp knife and I think he sees a way to get a number one overall at fourth pick, and then will make the playoffs next year and give up the first rounder penalty for the 6.66 Million dollar man. David Steckel (at 1.1 million) would interest me, but that is not enough to drop down three spots and they just traded for him.

5^th overall, or New York Islanders: This team is lost in a rebuild that has lasted most of my lifetime (or at least the part I have memories for). For Snow to trade up he is going to have to see something really, really special in one of Larsson, Hugent-Hopkins or Landeskog.  There is going to be talent at this spot (Murphy / Huberdeau / Strome / maybe Couturier) so it is worth thinking about at least for the Oilers’ Brass. The bigger problem is who do the Oilers get in return? The Island does not have a veteran RH centre or a top 4 defenseman to impact next year so it going to be prospects—I am thinking either Nino Niederreiter or Calvin de Haan. I just don’t see either of those players being worth dropping 4 spots and I doubt Snow will give up more than that.

6^th overall pick, or Ottawa: Here is the dark horse . . . I would not normally suggest that the Oilers trade out of the lottery picks, but Bryan Murray needs to something, anything for crying out loud, at this draft. He is in the beginning of his ‘rebuild’ and Jersey winning the lottery took him out of it. Selling another season or two of losing would be easier if he starts it with the number one overall pick, or at least his phone calls with K-Lowe should have taught him that. But what do the Sens have to offer the Oilers. Starting with veterans, they have Chris Neil (at 2 million for two more seasons) and Filip Kuba (3.7 million for one more). Yes they are over paid, but both would come off the books by the time the Holy Trinities contracts need to be renegotiated: so the Oilers could eat the cap hit. They would shore up some problems for next year: the need of another second pairing Dman or a veteran winger both players with grit and penalty killing ability. These vets are not enough to move down five whole spots and give up on the really highly rank prospects, so either the Oilers must think extremely highly of a player not at the top of most of these teams draft list, and there is some other exciting components coming back. I’d be calling Murray giving him some tall tales about the excitement about calling out the number one pick, and then trying to convince him to trade Neil or Kuba, Rundblad or Cowen, plus the 6^th overall pick (and possibly the 21^st overall pick, if I could get it) for the once-in-a-lifetime chance to pick before anyone else.

Overall

I cannot see New York Area teams actually trading up for the number one pick: it is not part of their ‘rebuilding’ plans, since neither of these teams is actually rebuilding in the model of Pittsburgh. Chicago, or Washington. Florida or Ottawa are at the beginning of a rebuild, and both markets could use the splash of the number one overall pick (as it would be seen as a great victory by the fans of these cities). Also both these teams have veteran players (especially Weiss) that would fill some holes in the Oilers’ line up, while the Oilers could still get a highly rank prospect at the draft and possible more from Ottawa.  Colorado is still in the mix since they would not have to give up as much to move up just one spot, and have useful players and picks to the Oil, but I think it would take more then Jay Clement.

Trading Up or Just Trading Away

As I said earlier, I do not think the Oilers should attempt to trade up from the 19^th overall pick: for the sake of simplicity I am going to assume the Kings' pick is nineteenth overall. If they still have it by that time they should just take the best player available in that slot to keep stocking the pipeline. Do I think that is going to happen? No: the Oilers will give up something good and this pick to get back in the top ten or they will draft by position (the opposite of what every they took at number one). Stupid Tambo, Stupid K-Lowe. But if they are smart they would be looking around to see what teams are hard against the cap and look to see if they can trade that second first round pick for a live warm body that can help them crawl out of the dog house next year. Here is a list of teams I would target:

Minnesota: They are going to need to do something over the summer: Chuck Fletcher is going to be in the hot seat since his boss said rebuilding (aka losing) is not an acceptable option. Brett Burns (at 3.55 million for one more year then UFA) would be a likely target for the Oilers since we need a better blue line, and they might not be able to resign him . . . maybe Cogliano and the 19^th overall is good enough to get that done? A third round pick (maybe Calgary’s) for the negotiating rights to Josh Harding is logical: assuming the Wild does not think they will or want to resign him. I am sure Cal Clutterbuck (1.4 Million) or that 10^th overall pick would be interest to the Oilers as well. I just don’t see a trade happening since the Wild need offense next season not picks or prospects, and the Oilers do not have a lot of that which is not part of the rebuild (but Omark and Hemsky should watch out)

Calgary: I know the Oilers virtually never trade with the Flames, but crazier shit has happened. The Flames are in cap space hell, missed the playoffs, and have a bare cupboard of prospects: I am thinking they make some kind of deal at the draft. I think the 13^th overall is out of play (unless the Oilers want to give up the 19^th and 31^st overall for it, since the Flamers could use more choices in the top 90 / they only have one!). While I don’t think Niklas Hagman is a long-term solution for the Oilers, he contract expires next year and would be another veteran player on a team of kids. Hagman as three million dollar cap dump for the Flames might only cost the Oilers a 3^rd round pick (since it give Jay Feaster both cap room and another pick—try trading back their own 3^rd rounder for this under producing winger). The player I would be looking hard at is Robyn Regehr!!! I know it might be unpopular with the Oilers’ fans, but seriously man would he improve our blue-line. Regehr does have a no-trade clause, but Edmonton is not that far of a move or change in climate, plus we have a good young core of players that might interest him. The Oilers would get a mean nasty Dman which would be our top player at that position for two years at 4.02 million a season. Would you trade Cogliano/Omark plus the 19^th overall for Robyn Regeher? I would, but would Feaster or Tambo?

Rangers: Slats is always looking to make a deal, and if he wants to take a run at Brad Richards then he is going to start having to make some cap space. There is two players on his team that are going into RFA and set to make a bunch more money: Ryan Callahan & Brandon Dubinsky. Both will get at least 2 million on a short term deal—like one, maybe two, years. If he wants to lock them up long term, I’d suggest Callahan is getting 3.25 million, and Dubinsky at least 4 million. My thinking is Slats would be interested in Cogliano (again, sorry but I don’t like him), Omark, and Smid since they are players with some skills—but with an overall incomplete game—and cheap. Packaging one of these players and that 19^th overall pick might get you one of those two highly rated blueshirts (you most likely would have to add a decent prospect to lay your hands on Dubinsky). Who knows, Slats might just send the 19^th pick to Dallas for Richard’s negotiating rights immediately in that case

San Jose: There could be big changes in the Bay Area, if the Sharks do nothing in the playoffs again . . . but it looks like the Kings are shitting the bed so we will have to wait till next playoff round to find out. But the Sharks could use some cap space and some help on the blue line. What about Smid and the 19^th overall for Joe Pavelski (4.0 million for the next three seasons)? I’d toss in a prospect if it got us a right-handed centre with offensive punch and a clue about his own end. I doubt their 26^th overall pick is of any value to the Oilers but who knows what Tambo is thinking.

Pittsburgh: Same thing with their 27^th overall pick, I doubt that is in play vis-à-vis the Oilers. But again, Pittsburgh is in cap trouble and needs some room to re-sign or sign their role players and useful parts. Everyone will start screaming once they read the players I would target (Jordan Staal at 4 million a season or Kris Letang at 3.5 miilion a yea), but I am not going big game hunting (87 or 71) and their veteran Dman all have no-trade clauses. Are Staal or Letang going to be cheap? No, but I think there is a package their that would help the Pegiuns. Maybe Smid/Omark/Cogliano, the 19^th & 31^st overall picks in this year draft and a package of lower picks over the next couple years (say a third next year and a fourth the year after) for Staal/Letang and Pittsburgh’s 2^nd round pick in this years draft. Yes that is a lot—and a long wait for the Oilers’ scouts between the lottery pick and Pittsburgh selection on the second day—but Shero is not going to just give away those young and talented players so he can save a few bucks on his cap hit.

Philly: Is in the same places as Pittsburgh (maybe it is in the water in Pennsylvania, but also maybe their fans actually like winning), but they too have cap space problems. I would be looking at Jeff Carter (at 5.3 a season), Matt Carle (at 3.44 million) or Braydon Coburn (3.2 cap hit). These players fit the position of need (Centre and Defense) for the Oilers and are young / good enough to be useful for the next few seasons. Again nothing is cheap here (especially Carter), but it is quality. Again one of Smid, Omark, or Cogliano, plus that 19^th overall and another part (low draft pick or middling prospect for the Dmen, or something better for Carter) should at least get the conversation started.

Overall

Things cost more here, but there also worth more too. I doubt the Oilers go down this path but if they do I’d be calling the Altantic Division looking for salary cap causalities: the Blue Shirts, the Broad Street Bullies, or Mario’s team. They all have the two way centre the Oilers are looking for (and is young enough to be around and in their prime when the Holy Trinity is getting ready to compete). The Wild aren't really a match since they are looking for offensive help right now, and I doubt Feaster trades the brutalizing force named Regehr to a team in his own division. I have no idea what San Jose will do, but I think we will get a better idea as the playoff unfold.

Summary

If anyone does agree with me here: you are stupider then Tambo! Sorry to call folks names, but the Oilers need to really examine their options for the upcoming draft. Yes getting two prospects from the first round will set them up for their upcoming decade of dominance, but only if those players actually work out. The Oil could actually improve the team now, and stockpile prospects for the future at the draft if they play their cards right. What I would do is to trade the number one overall pick down (specially to Colorado or Florida) and try and get a centre and maybe a low round draft pick for the second day. If that does not work, start calling the Altantic division about a one of those young centres (and I would over pay a little too). Even if I do get a centre from trading down, still use that 19^th overall to pick up a blue liner. Here are a couple of examples, that will never happen with Tambo in charge:

Idea 1:

To Edmonton: the third overall pick 2011 (Florida), Stephen Weiss (Florida), a fourth round pick 2011 (Florida), a veteran defensemen with a year or two on his contract / maybe Regehr-like (Team X)

Leaving Edmonton: the first overall pick 2011 (Florida), Cogliano & 19^th overall pick plus a fifth round pick in 2011 (Team X)

*we still get one of Larsson, Hugent-Hopkins, Couturier, or Landeskog

Idea 2:

To Edmonton: the sixth overall pick 2011 (Ottawa), Kuba (Ottawa), Rundblad or Cowen (Ottawa), Jeff Carter (Philly)

Leaving Edmonton: the first overall pick (Ottawa), the 19^th & 31^st overall picks 2011 (Philly), Alex Plante (Philly), Omark (Philly)

* the problem is that we are giving up the chance to pick one of the top four hyped players, and would have to settle for the second tier of prospects in this years draft . . . but we get Carter!

Real Life is so Boring, that I am going to talk about video games.

2011-03-14T15:36:00.005-06:00

You would have to be a dumber man than me to actually believe that building an NHL team is as easy as it is on NHL 11 (EA Sports). But I have been playing it a lot these days, with my roomies, as to be a distraction from the actual Oilers. We are not too bad: as due to their talent at playing video games, and my attempt to build a NHL team with NHL players. This is what I am going to talk about today. Obviously, the specifics of the deals I made are irrelevant and stupid for you to read today; so I am going talk overall strategies:

a) Cap Space: asset or irrelevant?

I do not see having cap space as an ‘asset’ in relation to building the NHL. Yes, it is useful to have some cap space as to be able to upgrade your team around the dead line, or when you have to resign your RFAs, but other then that how does having 10 million dollar in unused salary help you win games? My strategies revolving around cap space are these:

Sign the best player available when you have lots of cap space going into Free Agency. Not the player that fits your needs best, but one that is the best (just like the entry draft). You can always deal / trade players from a position of strengthen later to fill up a weakness. What I did is sign Kovalchuk to the longest possible deal, at more then he was asking for (5 years / 10 million): I got him too. Is paying Kovalchuck 10 million a good business move? No. Is it good for the team? Well, I have the second best LW in the NHL now, and he is the most talented player on my team . . . so yes. Can the real Oilers do this? I doubt it. See there are strict limits on the term of the contract in the video game, which means I did not have to sign Kovalchuck to a million year deal. Also I did it in the first year of the game, meaning that it eats up years that the holy trinity do not have giant contracts.
Sign role players: over the last two or three seasons I have signed NHL players to play in the bottom 6 forwards and bottom 2 d-pairing. Is this revolutionary? No! It is common sense. I have over–paid at times (when I had the cap space) and spent lots of time looking for value (when I did not). Veterans win, ‘nough said.

b) The Dustin Penner Deal.

Yes I traded the big man; yes, the fans (roomies) were upset. But instead of trading him for a prospect and a 1st rounder, I traded him with a prospect and a first rounder. I got freak’n Patty Kane back. I know that is unreasonable, but a very useful player (like Penner) plus a top prospect and a first round draft choice should have been good enough to get back a player better then Penner, I would have hope, in real life too. I know I was not getting a lottery pick, since my team is actually in the playoffs, and in real life I would not trade the lottery pick but Tambo should be shot for trading Penner for magic beans. I had too many LWers, so I traded to help out the right side. I got a player better then I traded, shocking strategy, hey?

c) Signing goaltenders for one year at a time.

Unlike real life I was allowed to buy out the Boozen Wall: which I did after the first season (to reduce the cap hit overall). Then I signed a replacement for one year at a time, to help bring along Devan Dubnyck. Shocking strategy I know!

d) Trade to increase depth and size at centre.

This is a big surprise too. I know that Tambo has little chance of doing as well as I do (since the game over-values certain players that I traded, aka Brule), but here is an idea: big veteran centres help the team win. I trade Gagner and Gilbert for Eric Stall: most likely not possible, but those two players would be able to get something back that is quite decent (and better then any centre on the team currently). I traded Brule for David Steckel. I mean why has Tambo not dealt with the lack of big centres on the NHL roster yet, it is a fuck’n joke. I did it after one year of losing draws and being pushed around.

That is all I got. I know it is boring, but so is watching the Oilers these days. I still rather play my video game, because the Oilers win in it (and even challenge for the Stanley Cup); I mean who would want the Oilers to have a second line of Horcoff-Hemsky-Hall . . . boring! I would sacrifice a child to watch a first line of Oilers’ silks wrapped around Staal, Kane and Kovalchuck in real life. I have veterans in the NHL and rookies (Eberle / Paajarvi) in the AHL. I guess I get to watch my rookies slowly grow, but I get to play a real NHL team.

Wishing for a GM.

2011-03-01T12:59:00.004-07:00

This is Lou. I wish he was my GM.

Well, I am going out on a limb here: I said it was ok to trade one of the two veteran wingers (the D-Train or the Lightness of Being: Pens and Hemsky respectively). But I do not like the trade, of Penner, in the least. So, I am kind of at a loss to what to talk about.

Interlocutor: You bloody wanker! You can’t have two minds ‘bout the fuck’s transfer. It is like you are just a little bloke wanking it up in your mama’s powder room . . . shit or get off the bloody pot, you bloke.

Well, it is called a damn ‘trade’ you buck-tooth shit head: how long have you been following me around that to not have learned one or two terms about North American sports?

Interlocutor: Ha, you still think it is north American sports, not just American sports. Do you even listen to the fucken penguin when he talks?

What ever. I am talking about the Penner trade, not the last time Bettman should up to schill for Mr. Katz. And I can have two minds about the trade since I like to think outside the box, not everything is black or white.

First, we have too many wingers going into the future: with the holy trinity, the Irish, & Hemsky, I am counting at least five future top 6 wingers.

Interlocutor: I finished grade-school: five is lower than six, so we still need Penner to make it six . . .

Shut up, you dumb-fuck’n-twit. Top six players would include two centres, so really it is four wingers we need. But the problem is not that we have to many right now: since the Pääjärvi ghoast and Omark are not quite ready for top line minutes (but might be in a year or two), the other two kids are really only second liners right now, and we only had two vets (Pens and Hemsky) that could play against the toughs and still come out ahead. But in a couple years, we would have a longjam at this position and it is a position of strength right now plus going forward. It was going to be need to be addressed, and it was yesterday. I am hoping the move yesterday is because either I was wrong and we have the horses in the corral, or that the foals need room to run.

The problem for me is not that we trade the D-Train, since he would be whom I trade out of those wingers, but what we got back: “Magic Beans”.

Interlocutor: Who is Mr. “Magic Beans”? Is he a centre, maybe a D-man? I am looking around this Al Gore developed machine, and I can’t seem to find him. Is that an odd school-boy name from when he was just a little bloke?

Magic Beans is just that a handful of crap. There has been a lot of bitching and moaning about the fact we got three assets (aka the Pronger or Smyth trade), and this failing process of the ‘rebuild’.

Interlocutor: Well that is what you get on the eve of the transfer deadline . . . a bunch of picks and players that are still fooling around in the academies. But you trade the one giant among hobbits, you are a bloody stupid cunt, hey?

Well, you got two points there not one . . . First, why you are right about the fact many teams only want tot give up draft picks, lets look at the trade dead deals that have happen over the last couple years: specifically ones that the fucktard Lou of the Devils was involved in (who could be consider one of the best GMs in the league over the last, say, ten years). First the Kovalchuk trade—easily the best player of last deadline—and then the Jason Arnott this year—one of the best players this year—as comparisons. In both cases there was a major roster player involved in those deals: it took Johnny Oduya, a real NHL defender, to pry Kovalchuk out of the birth place of CNN, and it took David Steckel, a giant NHL grinding centre, to get Lou to pass on Mr. “I Just Did Not Feel It Last Night”. While Dustin Penner is in between these two players, he still is in the category: one of the best players avialiable at the deadline.

Why did he not get us an actual NHL player back? If Lou can do it when the players are actually in their last year, and he might be forced to blink (since it is the last chance to get value back for these players), than why did Tambo not get a useful part when he is no rush to trade someone?

Interlocutor: What is he going to do: just say the fat boy is not going anywhere unless a player is coming back?

Yes!

Interlocutor: Is that what you do when your fat ass boss is breathing down your neck looking for a headline grabbing deal? Would you just sit there rubbing one out while your boss looks on? Don’t you have any shame or is your point to get fired?

Well, I don’t know who to blame more (Katz or Tambo, or even Lowe for that matter), but yes . . . you sit there and say ‘don’t call unless it is serious, I am not trading my most productive player for anything less then a Damn or a centre that can help me win next year. I am looking for a hockey trade, damnit.” In both of the New Jersey trades, there was a part of the deal we should have been looking for! Either a second pairing defense man or a giant centre that can win-draws! Shit, why I am yelling?

Interlocutor: Really, calm the fuck down you twit. The Oilers got a good deal, just look at the other biggies in the last couple weeks; even the silver-fox said so.

MacT hates Penner; but actually that was the best part of last night . . . when our ex-coach did not say much but did acknowledge that Penner has been better since he was gone and that is why we got so much. But ok, lets look at the big trades:

a) Jason Arnott for Steckel and a 2^nd. Jersey does better then Edmonton (they must be looking at the Phily model not the complete rebuild hey?)

b) Thomas Kaberle for prospect Joe Colborne, Boston's 1st round choice in the 2011, and a conditional 2nd round draft choice. (lets say exactly the same, but I would rather have Colborne than Teubert)

Others, such as the McCabe or Brewer deals, just aren’t in the same horizon. The return is just not as strong. So it is fair to say that the Tambo did not get brutally violated in this one, but it is also clear that he did not do well. Both Kaberle and Arnott are UFAs at the end of the year, hence clear rental players, and Penner is not: so really that extra year is not worth more? That Lou got a player back, and Burke got better conditions on his second. To all the talking heads: lot at all the data before you call the Oilers a winner; a winner they are not, but maybe they are not a loser if you look at the return.

Interlocutor: Poor piss-ant. It is not like your blue & orange have to face regulation, like my boys on the pitch do? Quit your fucken’ moping.

I think that is my point. If only the ‘bleu et orange’, could be sent to the AHL . . . then Katz would hold people accountable. Until then I am stuck sitting through them lie to me and shit on me. I am off to cheer for Montreal (and watch them) till their season ends. FUCK YOU KATZ. FUCK YOU TAMBO.

Letter from the editor2

2011-02-24T11:32:00.002-07:00

Hi everyone. It seems as though people like it when I moonlight over at the Copper and Blue, so I did it again. BCB and I did a semi-collaborative post (by which I mean I wrote and he edited) on Marx, Debord and deadline day. It can be read here.

Go Oilers

SWS

Typology of Trades. Vol. 1

2011-02-17T13:38:00.010-07:00

In thinking about the up coming deadline, and procrastinating on my school work, I came up with an idea today: I would create a typology of what the Oilers have to trade with in the draft using the trades that occurred this year. It is not so complete, but it makes a little sense and we have to get some blogs up on here (now and again). I was going to do it with a bunch of philosophy too: but I got kind of lazy.

Here is the outline: Forwards = Kant, Defense = Deleuze, Goalies = Pre-socratics. Maybe I will as it gets closer to the deadline or when some Oilers get traded?

Forwards:

Over this last year, there have been multiple trades that involve forwards that may help us establish value for some of the Oilers at the deadline. First, I am going to ignore the Michael Frolik trade since it does not make any sense: but I do like Derek’s work on why the Oilers should be buyers. I am not going to take that approach since I believe that Tambo is going to stick to his ‘seller’ mindset that has driven this franchise in to ruin over the last 14 months or so.

The category I would like to begin with is the spare parts: or for fourth line guys. Both the Eager and the Voros trades could come into this category. On one hand, San Jose only gave up a fifth round pick (in 2011) for an overly-aggressive fourth liner that can fight, check, and has some playoff experience, while, on the other hand, Burkie’s man-crush on ‘thugs’ made him over pay for Voros giving the Ducks a 7^th round pick in 2012 (only if he re-signs). I think these trades could set the upper limit and the lower limit (the smallest possible compensation allowed by the current CBA).

So how in the Oilers line up would fit this bill, well I have a few names: SMac, JFJ, Fraser, & Red Ox. SMac would look like the closes thing to a Voros, and I can’t see a competent GM paying over a 7^th rounder (if resigned for next year) for SMac at this point in the season: the hulking tower of a man is not going to get in that many minutes before being a healthy scratch in the playoff. SMac would need to be going to a non-playoff team looking to start piecing a line up together for next year. Fraser becomes a better fit for the Eager trade: both 4^th line players who bring a skill or two, and have some playoff experience. Fraser is less dominate that Eager in aggression and physicality, but has more ability on the PK and defensive side to the game (not great ability but just more). He might go for a 5^th or 6^th round pick to a contender that misses out on their preferred target. JFJ and the Red Ox fall somewhere in the middle: they could be a contributor to the fourth line of a playoff team (or at least a decent 13^th/14^th depth man) . . . but they do not have playoff experience (which is always a premium) and have some obvious flaws in their games—puck skills and size, respectably. The most you might get is a late 6^th, but most likely only a 7^th round pick (without conditions). Remember Zorg cleared waivers so most teams most likely do not think our players are worth shit!

Players for Sale: Fraser (NHL team) and Red Ox (a team pushing for an AHL run . . . aka wait a few days and then waive Reddox since nobody will be able to use him in the playoffs they will not likely take him). Buyers: I don’t know but my guess would be: Rangers, Phillie, San Jose, Phoenix, Caroline, Calgary. All could use a upgrade in the bottom of there line up and have maybe the cap space to address this. They get to be picky since I doubt we see more then 3 forwards get trade for such low amounts, especially with a few waiver wires that occur at this time of year.

The next category is the ‘bust, or just needs a new home’ type of player. The only trade I see which is close to this is Montreal’s trade with the Ducks earlier in the season: in which Maxim Lapierre—a second round pick that never lived up to his expectations on the bleu rouge blanc—was trade for a fifth round pick in next years draft and Brett Festerling (an undrafted Dman with 80 games of NHL experience). In the past this has often been a former first rounder for another former first rounder type of trade.

The only player on this list, really, for me is Brule. Not Cogliano since the coaching staff seems to have a lot of faith in him and the fact the Oilers have always included him in block-busters that fail to get off the ground. So Brule is a former lottery (albeit low lottery pick at 5^th overall), and has skill and physicality in his game. He could be used by a playoff bound team on the fourth line, which has the skating legs, checking ability, and offensive awareness (aka shot) to be able to step up for a few shifts / games on a higher line. If I were a playoff team, Brule would be a higher target for my fourth plus lines then old Blackhawks like Eager or Fraser.

The problem is his contract: 1.85 Million next season. He is not too expensive (that he only cost 0.5 million against the cap for the rest of this year) so it is a high risk, high reward gamble: Brule could turn out bad but he could also turn out good. The price for a ‘Brule’ type player is about often an exact equivalent: a former first rounder, who has great potential, little likely chance to live up to that potential, and serviceable in a good/excellent team’s fourth line and on a bad teams second or third line. Most likely it would either be a failed first or second rounder and maybe a low pick coming back.

Players for Sale: Brule, Cogliano (for a Defenseman?). Buyers: Tampa, Montreal, Carolina, Atlanta, Detroit, Anaheim, Phoenix, Blackhawks, Calgary (not with us), and Columbus. All for different reasons but they could all use a player like Brule or Cogliano right now. Lots of teams could use this type of player . . . including Edmonton.

Then there is the solid veteran 3^rd liner, on a playoff team, type of trades, which include the vets that are normally entering their UFA playing on the bottom feeders of the league. Obvious that is not the exactly the case for Kelly that took a trip to B-town for a second rounder, but Jamie Langenbrunner’s jaunt back to Dallas for 3^rd or 2^nd pick in this next two years: please see here for the complications. The Oilers have nobody up front that fits this bill (this is one of two reasons we are worst in the fuck’n league). Maybe Ryan Jones, but he is not get you a 2^nd round pick maybe a fourth or a prospect . . . maybe.

Players for Sale: Jones? Buyers: Everyone in the playoff run except Nashville & Washington maybe?

Last you have the upper limit, as of right now: the Versteeg or Fisher Deals. Now I like the Fisher deal better on both sides . . . Fisher is a better player then Versteeg (while quite different) . . . and I like the return better too. I know Burkie gets that 3^rd pick right now—and he using it for lube in his giant ego-stroke at trade dead line—and the one Murray gets is still a might get. But it has the chance to go up to a second round pick if the very deep Nashville team wins in the playoffs. I also like future picks since Ottawa gets the second next year and they can decide whether to draft a player or use it as trade bait in the second year of the rebuild.

The Oilers that fit this bill are Hemsky and Penner. I really don’t want to talk about them today so I am just going to suggest that these deals are the starting point for Hemsky or Penner . . . both I consider better players with playoff jewelry or experience.

Players for Sale: the above two mentioned players. Buyers: The City of Angels, the Apex of Country Music, The Quebecois, Steel Town USA, and maybe where CNN is located: just to name a few.

Defensemen

The three major defensemen trades I would like to focus on are: Mara, Beauchemin, & Wisniewski. Mara is obviously the least, with the Ducks only getting their own 5^th round pick back (which they gave up in Lapierre trade). This does not look good for Vandermeer’s trade value right now. Montreal obviously winning the Lapierre trade since they got two pseudo-NHL defenders to shore up the bottom of the NHL and top of the AHL roster on the blue. Their luck has been terrible with injuries (their top two defenders in my opinion); they have relied on their depth at this position while continuing to add. Wisniewski for the compensatory 2nder rounder they have on a failure to sign an old first round and another conditional 5^th rounder next year. Vandermeer is not this good but maybe Smid is? Beauchemin looks like a logical hockey trade: a top defender (this time with years on his contract, weird!) for a NHL player, prospect and random draft choice + matching salaries/ish. I don’t see the Oilers Brass trading Gilbert for such a small amount (or maybe I hate Lupul). We don’t have any other players that fit this bill.

And it doesn’t matter anyway; GMs get crazy for Dmen at the Deadline. The prize is more rhizomatic then structural. Who knew that Staois could get you a third rounder?* Why is Pronger always trade for a handful of assets? There seems to be a free flowing set of relationships been these trades: less structured value, which is often more context specific (who the trading partners are, their needs, the players involved themselves, etc…). There are always the vets that go for picks at the deadline but what those picks are is a mystery to me. If forwards are like the old family-tree method of biology, then defensemen are more like cladistic in contemporary biological science.

Players for sale: Everyone but Gilbert and Petry. Buyers: every team trying to make the playoffs, there is a player here to fit anyone’s budget (Smid could go for a second, vis-à-vis Grebeshkov logic; Vandermeer must be available for a 3^rd or 4^th, if you wait long enough you might be able to get him for a 5^th; what would Peckham cost you to be a 6^th /7^th defender on a decent team? Some picks and prospects?)

Goalies:

Lastly, the Islanders have made a couple goalie trades . . . not surprising since they have an old back-up goalie (with out NHL management experience) and a little man—crazier than any goalie—in charge of the team. Look, I didn’t even need to mention their 15-year contract to a broken 1B tandem goalie. So Rollie for D prospect Ty Wishart and Al Montoya for a 6^th round pick. I think even Tambo could of got a lot higher pick out of the Island for either Gerber or JDD . . . I am assuming that he wants OKC to win or at least try.

Players for Sale: No one.

* If we are thinking about Derek’s suggestion to be a buyer not a seller at the Deadline, which does not look to be a bad idea . . . I like his logic. Then wouldn’t it be along that line to add the Flames pick into market? Not for a pure rental, but their might be a 3^rd line centre with a couple years on his contract available? Maybe here is wishing!

Skating.

2011-02-01T13:53:00.006-07:00

I have recently re-discovered the joys of skating. A couple springs ago, I bought a pair of Reeboks skates while they were 50% off. They got stuck in a box when I moved a couple months later, and forgotten about: unsharpened, incorrectly laced-up, with the price tags still on. I moved to Toronto this fall, only to find my new skates again. It took me a while to get around to getting them sharpened.

Once I started to skate again, memories—of standing around in the first hockey practices of the fall shifting, from foot to foot, as so I could pretend the pain in my feet was not there—surfaced again for the first time in over ten or more years. I guess they make skates out of some kind of composite armor that is a bitch to break in: my wet shock trick didn’t do anything but freeze my feet into the skates (it works for combat boots so why not skates? Oh, I skate outside).

I decided I couldn’t afford hockey equipment, this year—Damn! The prices of sticks these-days, breaks a graduate student’s pocketbook—even the old Stastny or Coffey Sherwoods are over fifty bucks. But I did get a nice new jock & can (as I can remember random pucks and sticks well), as well as a few pucks before I decided I should to re-learn how to skate before I picked up a hockey stick.

So I have been skating around on outdoor rinks as of the last few weeks: just big loops around some choppy piece of ice always with beautiful women. No really: my roommate, women I am interested in, a six year-old princess, & some friends. There is more talking and flirting then I remember when as a child I went skating with the ‘boys’. Not that a couple of these ladies are not far superior skaters to me. They often end up skating circles around my, while I am sweating and gasping for breath. Damn it has been a few fun weeks, and unlike the recent Oiler’s play it has create a bunch of great memories.

This is the worst season of memories, by the Oilers, that I can ever remember. I watch religiously through the nineties . . . even after I quit hockey to be in musical theatre and modern dance (see interest in women). I know I get to watch the Holy Trinity* and Omark dance in the offensive zone, as well as Petry & Peckham really fill out their games: overall it is the best rookie crop I have ever seen in orange and blue silks. But I hate it. I want to watch the Oilers win games, and be in the playoff race—even if it means spring disappointment: cause often spring disappointment means we have some good moments at the end of April.

So since we are only talking about next season (I mean virtually every blog is on board with this: it easy to talk about this season: i.e. “Did you see _______ last night, He was great, and still so young. Too bad the rest of the team is undermanned and the systems suck.”). Here is my list of untouchables . . . I did this a couple seasons ago, and boy was I wrong. Here are a couple highlights:

a) Tambo on the ‘Untouchable List’. I must have been drunk on something or just really desperate to have said this: “we have been begging for an upper office manger who has experience and not one of the old boys, we finally got one: lets give him a chance.”

b) Having both then goaltenders on the ‘On the Edge List’. Oh and I am talking about: Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (“the only Hopeful part of the three headed monster”) and Dwayne Roloson (“we need a veteran goalie for our Utopia”). Seriously, I had delusions the JDD might not suck and Roloson would be a good veteran mentor between the pipes. Actually one of those statements turned out to be true.

c) My ‘Can’t be moved (unless we pull a Mogilny) List’ was completely out to lunch. I had Staios (that netted us a third round pick) & Cap’t Two-Minute-Minor (how the BJ’s claimed off waivers: we really should have sent flowers after that one-night stand) solidly in the mix. Cole eventual got trade too, but that has been Tambo’s biggest bust. Lastly, I had the pugilists—SMac and Zorg—on this list, cause I never think fighters have value on the trade market . . . well, I might have been wrong about the man once called HuggyBear, but the lumbering goon needs to get waived—WHAT THE FUCK, TAMBO! Sorry about the allcaps.

d) The ‘Trade Bait List’ includes those that were just that (Garon, Grebeshkov, and Brodziak) with a couple players that got releases/bought-out (Pouliot & Nilsson). The jury is still out on the rest.

e) I correctly predicted that Chad ‘camp mendelbaum’ Moreau and Pete Peeters would be fired, and I did ask the question of Kelly Buchburger (“what is his experience? what is his roll?”). I still don’t know the answer. I am too embarrassed to repeat what I said about Lowe and MacT.

This year’s list:

‘Untouchable List’

Taylor Hall—Best natural talent on the team, and will be its most dominate player for the next 5 or 6 seasons.

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson—Too talent to give up on because of a little slow start moving form the SEL to the NHL. Wouldn't be a bad idea to hire a veteran Swede—in the off season (maybe on the back end)—for the room vis-à-vis the Pääjärvi Ghost, Omark, & Lander.

Shawn Horcoff—It doesn't matter if he could be included on the ‘Can’t be moved (unless we pull a Mogilny) List’: it is irrelavent. Right now, the Mighty Russian has to teach the defensive side of the game to the youngen’ on the run against the hardest competition. I am not going to check the advance stats, cause that is what I see.

Jordan Eberle—The smartest play of the Three. ‘nough said.

Ladislav Smid, Theo Peckham & Jeff Petry—Smid's birthday is today and 26 years old: he has a 1.3 Million year contract that expires this year but is an RFA. Peckham is in the same boat but with a 0.55 million contract: plus he is 23 only years old. Petry is also 23 years old, but this is his first pro season and only makes 1 Million for this year and next . . . still a RFA. Together they should make a solid 4-5-6 defenseman, at minimum, and have the ability to fill in for bigger rolls. What that is going to cost us what? Like maybe 4 million in cap-space to sign all of them next season: most likely cheaper. I wouldn’t think about moving these parts, but just adding to them (see below).

‘On the Edge List’

Sam Gagner—I personally think trading him is a stupid and selfish idea. Trade from a weakness (centre) to fill another need, when the part of the weakness you are trading is not actually the weakness. See Gagner is type casted as not the big-number-one-center that we ‘need’. What we need is a health Horcoff and another competent centre, because a depth of two is not enough.

Tom Gilbert and Ryan Whitney—Well this are two prototype-defensemen that I want playing with the three young dmen that I called untouchables. The problem is neither one of them us good enough to be a real ‘Number 1 Dman’! I really mean it; I loved to have these two players for most if not all their current contracts (four million over the next three and two years). I’d trade one, if that had to happen to up grade the position, but they would be a significant piece going back (maybe with prospects but not anything exciting).

J-F Jacques & Steve MacIntyre—They have no value, and lots of backers (Management and Coaching, respectively) in the organization. They are wastes of contract spaces, and wastes of roster spaces. Please save us now, this cannot be happening.

‘Can’t be moved (unless we pull a Mogilny) List’

Gilbert Brule, Kurtis Foster & Colin Fraser—They suck. I said the same thing about a lot of players that were traded last time around: plus a bunch of them got a lot of value back. I just can’t see any other GM want these players this year. They all have contracts that run into next year and have underperformed.

Nikolai Khabibulin—He is a drunk. Signed over 35 years old, makes a shit-tonne of money, and is terrible.

Jason Strudwick—What does he do again? He has no value, but I have been wrong before.

Zack Stortini—Zorg just got waived. I say he gets picked up. I hope he does, I liked him.

‘Trade Bait List’

Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky & Linus Omark—Too many skilled, talented wingers, and not enough top-flight defense and a centremen with a brain. I have been vocal about Hanzal and Weber, but that is hardly an original idea. The important part is identifying which wingers will perform better and getting them under reasonable contracts. Then trading the other one or two for the missing parts we need (the two mentioned in this paragraph and between the pipes).

Andrew Cogliano—What position does he play? I really do not think it is centre, or wing: maybe it is Rover? He needs to be moved to top 6 forward, on the wing. Right now there is too many young skilled wingers ahead of him and even more veterans . . . what to do? I’d either trade him or trade two of the above wingers and move him up to see what he can do as a winger playing with actual talent. The problem is that Tambo has not displayed the ability to make solid acquisitions at the deadline: the Cole for Patty’O and the Czech shot was a terrible deal. His selling for draft picks and small deals in the summer ‘record’ is much better. The Oilers need to address their long term weakness before Cogliano gets a fair shot at the wing—Tambo moves too slow for this to happen.

Jim Vandermeer—I think Lowe tide says he might just be worth the most, but that man writes too much for me to ever quote him. I tend to agree. He is gone or hurt by the trade deadline.

Ryan Jones—Trade him, now! Before he loses any value. It is fine if he turns out great on another team, we need extra bullets for the ‘Magnificent’ Bastards gun.

Jeff Deslauriers & Martin Gerber—If the Barons are looking to make a playoff run, then both should be kept around. Maybe they should add a 5th or 7th round pick and get another skilled forward to help this platoon out. If not, and you would have to think the Oilers want the Barons to make the playoffs in their first year, you trade one of them for sixth or seventh round draft pick as to get some value out of their expiring contacts

Devan Dubnyk—Why not trade him? I don’t think he is the answer going forward, but I don’t know what is. Goalies are crazy. With the Booz’en Wall here he is getting kinda fucked.

So there you have it. I really find losing boring to watch. Tambo is not going to do anything till the summer. I am lost on whether to keep watching. I most likely will with my roommate, but she is a Habs fan (but so is my Dad and Uncle). Please get better on the ice, or Katz please fire people. If not, I am just going skating.

* Hall, Jordan Eberle, and the Pääjärvi Ghost

Letter from the editor

2011-01-09T12:32:00.003-07:00

Dear faithful readers,

I cannot imagine anyone who reads us that doesn't also read The Copper and Blue to actually exist, but if there is anyone that fits this description, our most recent story was actually written for them. Instead of reposting it, I am going to leave this handy link instead. This is the latest in a series of posts we have written over there and should further strengthen the bonds between our diaspora community here and the good people at the Copper and Blue.

Go Oilers

SWS

Much Ado About Nothing

2010-12-22T09:18:00.003-07:00

This is JF Jacques. He was part of perhaps the second worst trade in the K-Lowe era of (mis)management. Everyone who knows the history of the team knows that when the Oilers could have drafted Zack Parise, Mike Richards, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Shea Weber or Corey (Horcoff Killer) Perry, they instead traded down, drafted a player known around here as the Poo, and the big fellow posted above. The reasons were simple: The Oilers wanted to get some size back in 2003, which explains the Poo pick, Colin MacDonald, the JFJ pick, and the 3rd round pick of the draft, one Zack "Huggy Bear" "Zorg" "the Animal" Stortini. In an ironic twist of fate, the size thing that prevented Parise ceased to matter for a while, creating a line-up now, seven years later that is an imbalanced roster filled with smurfs that sometimes score and second round draft picks that couldn't hit the net if it were right in front of them.

I'll be the first to admit that this is not my typical kind of post. This one is based entirely on a need to vent about the kind of chatter that is happening with regards to our man Zorg and his unfortunate draft-class mate, JF(F)J. The esteemed Lowetide put up a post today over at OilersNation talking about the Zorg, stating that while he doesn't love Zack, he understands the value of Zack in the lineup and hopes that JFJ is the big skill-less winger who will get "kicked to the curb" as opposed to Zack, who is far from the worst on the team. The question though, is why is this even up for debate? I still cannot even understand why JFJ is playing in the NHL. In his 5 pro seasons, he hasn't gotten any better, despite spending a huge chunk of time playing top-gun minutes with Horcoff and Hemsky last year. He doesn't really pass, doesn't really shoot, has zero defensive awareness and a nasty habit of going for the hit instead of the puck. I kinda thought the purpose of hockey was to take the puck and try to move it up the ice towards the other team's net, not skate fast and hit people while avoiding the puck. As LT stated, Zorgybear is usually out with dreadful linemates and tends to keep the puck on the good side of the ice. On a team that was horrifically bad last year, Zack was actually a +3 player on the old +/- scale, no easy task when you've got a team goal differential of - 70. Zack can play both wings, occasionally take draws, has more heart then most of the team put together and trains harder than anyone this side of Shawn Horcoff, including taking a crazily intense power-skating course all summer long in an effort to get faster. JFJ broke his back, twice. Ok, so I can't harp on the guy for having an injury history. Back injuries suck, I know. I have had my share of back troubles, mostly from being a fat guy, but now that I am no longer a fat guy, I still have issues every now and again. The injuries are not the point, the performance on ice is. In 246 games, Zack has 39 points. In 122 games, JFJ has 12. Zack has more career goals than JFJ has points, yet there are still people out there that insist that we keep evaluating JFJ to see if he will turn into what he was projected to be. And those people are not limited to Steve 3.0. (Although, his evaluation is the only one that seems to matter...) After 5 years, I think we have seen enough.

The team isn't sucking that much. It isn't perfect, but there are so many obvious solutions to the problems that they have, yet Jacques keeps trotting out there while Zack often sits in the pressbox. In last night's game against the Sharks, there was a sequence in the third, a momentum changing sequence where Stortini basically kept the puck in the attacking zone by himself for about 35 seconds, despite the near failures of both of his linemates. He can control the boards for extended periods and won't give up the puck to make or take a hit. That is not something that can be said about JFJ.

Bottom line, JFJ is taking up a roster spot that could be going to any number of better players within the organization. It's time to cut him loose. Send him to the farm and bring up the ginger, or MacDonald, or keep the roster spot open in case a defenceman is needed or someone interesting comes up on the waiver wire. We've already flushed the Poo, now it's time to purge the other mistake of 2003. Crazy Train, it's time for you to leave the station, and as is the case with most trains, you're running a little behind on your scheduled departure.

Go Oilers

SWS