Building for the Future: Why an RFA offer sheet might go a long way?

The Oilers like a certain type of player: fast, smart, and skilled (or just a Coke Machine). Tambo v3 has added another wrinkle to that portrait, and he is looking for those with Canadian junior experience. A lot of digital light has been employed, by bloggers, bemoaning the lack of an experienced penalty killer / veteran centre on the Oilers’ roster. As well as, fans continuing to mercilessly chant the mantra of “youth and more rebuilding” since drafting the primary figure in the Oiler’s divine trinity. These statements are contradictory in nature, and I have been on the side of signing veteran players and trying to make the playoffs. I have found a solution to solve this contradiction and it even fits into the brass’ vision of the team.

Its name is Martin Hanzal. He is a former first round pick (2005, seventeenth over all) from Czech Republic, but came over and played for the Red Deer Rebels in his nineteenth year after birth (and posted some decent numbers too: 26 goals 59 assists for 85 points in 60 games with another 94 PiMs).

So he fits the young rebuild model and the Oilers’ archetype of player: a 23 year old former first round draft pick that as a European spent time in the USHL and the WHL before showing up in the desert. He is also 6.06 and 228lbs, so he counts as a Coke Machine too—what is not to love?

These WHL numbers did not translate into exceptional NHL offence (in 227 games he has only 30 goals, 69 assists for 99 points or 0.436 points per game). His real value, at the NHL level, comes on the defensive side of the game as Derek Zona has demonstrated over at Copper & Blue. If you have not read his series of posts about the Best Forwards in the NHL, then it would be surprising to find Hanzal in top 16 players that face the toughest competition over the last three years. It is even more of a testament to his ability because Hanzal has only played three seasons in the NHL and has been playing the best opposition the NHL has to offer since he was a rookie. Oh, did I mention that he is a centre and won 50.6% of his 1104 faceoffs last year?

He is also that ‘veteran’ (and I use the term loosely) presence that the Oilers need to help shelter the rookies. In his rookie season 2007-08, Hanzal had the second toughest QualComp on his team (including only forwards that had a minimum of 40 games) at 0.032. In his sophomore season he had the most difficult of QualComp—same conditions—at 0,032 again. In the most recent season he lead all forwards in the desert with QualComp of 0.049. So we know he can play the vault, and according to Derek he does a damn good job of out scoring.
He can also be relied to take defensive zone draws since in his three-year period he had a zonestart of 197 with a normal corsi/60 of 2.34. He was never a first option of special teams play in Phoenix but did post 2.06 TOI/60 on the penalty kill and another 2.05 on the power play (and his 18:28 TOI/G was the second best on Phoenix last season, only behind Shane Doan).

Overall, Hanzal is a type of player that the Oilers need! He fits the youth movement, and has the pedigree the Oilers always look for in players. So he can grow into the core that is mainly younger then him. He is big, strong, and plays centre (leading the Coyotes in hits last year with 175). He can play tough minutes and take defensive zone draws. He is reliable. But why would a player like this (especially at age 23) be available?

Recently a report that Hanzal has had some difficultly signing a new contract has surfaced. He is coming off his entry-level deal that paid him roughly one million dollars a season (which is damn low for a first round draft pick). It is supposedly over the dollar amount of the contract not the term. This suggest to me that Dan Maloney is low balling him on the money side but offering a one or two year deal. This presents an opportunity for the Oilers to find one of the key pieces that they are missing, but how to go about cashing into this opportunity. I have two options.

Trade: A good comparison for this trade would be the Mueller/Wolski trade or Latendresse/Pouliot. Phx trade Muller (a former first round pick with some offensive struggles) and Kevin Porter (an smallish fourth round pick) to Col for Wojtek Wolski (another former first round pick struggling in the Mile High City at the time). Latendresse and Pouliot where both former first rounders that struggled on their respective teams and found new life elsewhere. This sets the price of a struggling first rounder as another struggling first rounder, but if one player is doing better then a sweeter is need to make the deal. So what about a swap of Andrew Cogliano for Martian Hanzal? Obviously there would have to be a sweeter added by the Oilers, would Milan Kytner or Taylor Chorney push this deal over the top. What about a little out of the box thinking like a conditional draft pick: a fifth if Hanzal is not signed by training camp, a third if it is a one year deal, and a second if it is a multi-year deal?

RFA Offer Sheet: This is the route I would go, and we know the Oilers have gone this route before. Would you think that Hanzal would accept a five-year deal that pays him 3 million dollars a year? Best yet this contract would only cost the Oilers a second round draft pick next year! Hanzal would get 15 million dollars and only give up one year of UFA status, which is a lot for his type of player. A list of other 3 million dollar men include: Byfuglien, Little, Bourque, Kotalik, Hejduk, Brassard, Ott, Hudler, Weiss, Ponikarovsky, A. Kostitsyn, Frolov, Vrbata, Versteeg, Armstrong, and Knuble. Most if not all of those players have better offensive numbers then Hanzal has over the last three seasons, and most of them got that contract in their UFA years as well. Is a 3 million dollar contract too low and allow the Desert Dogs to match it? It would be foolish to give up any more money since that gets into first round pick compensation (and we would not want to pull a Burke). Plus we would still have Cogliano in the trade-chamber which we could attempt to take down a real defenseman with.

So is three million dollars too much to spend on a bottom six forward? In the new NHL you need to have contracts that players will out perform to be successful, and I don’t know if Hanzal’s traditional boxcars will ever rational a three million dollar cap hit (but his advance stats sure think he is worth it). The other advantage is that during the first three years of the deal the Holy Trinity is still on entry level contracts, and by year four and five hopefully the salary cap will be going up (making his cap hit a smaller percent of the total salary cap). His contract would come up the same time as Horcoff’s current deal, so these centres would have the longest contracts on the Oilers.

It is a step towards competing this year, and it is not a step back in the rebuild.

Come on Tambo make the OilDiasporia’s year!

It Feels like a Long Night: 1990 and 2010

A couple days, on my birthday, I sat down to watch Game 1 of the 1990 Stanley Cup Finals: the Bruins and the Mighty Oil. I have referred to this series as the Badiouian Event that allows us to be Oilers Fans. This is not because I remember this Cup Victory better then any other one, but because it allowed us to believe in a truth that we could be champions without Gretzky. I believe it is the sole defining moment of any Oilers fan: it dictated who we were during the 1980’s and who we could become in the nineties and into the twenty-first century.

Well it was a rather long game, and a damn good way to spend the afternoon of my birthday. It got me thinking about the Oilers’ up coming season, and a wonder which of these teams could the Oilers eventually look like (I know it is crazy, but I have a dream about making the playoffs and doing well in them). The 1989-90 Oilers were a dynasty playing out its swan song: in a few years the great Boys on the Bus team would be completely dismantled and ship out for a bunch of baubles and a couple nice pieces. It is a little crazy to compare the holy trinity of the 21st century Oilers (Hall, Jordan Eberle, and the Pääjärvi ghost) and company to possibly the greatest hockey team ever, so it would be fool hearted to compare the new kids to that great team at its end. That only leaves the 1989-90’s Bruins to look to.

The Bruins team was quite young compared to the Oilers, but not overly young in relation to history. Obviously Craig Janney (21) and Randy Burridge (23) were the babies of the group, but not really part of their proper cluster. This core group of forwards included Cam Neely (24), Bob Sweeny (25), Lyndon Byers (25), Bobby Carpenter (26) & John Carter (26). These men where just entering their prime, and included some damn fine players outside Neely redefining the ‘power forward’ style of the late 20th century and early 21st century. The pivots Carpenter and Sweeny both had over 20 goals and 20 assists in the regular season (while Sweeny had a underwhelming post-season, Carpenter played a tough nosed second season and ended up with another 10 pts and 39 PiMs). Carter was another very good 2-way winger with a bit of a mean streak, and he had a decent playoffs as well. This core was supplemented with veterans (if Tambo is reading, please slow down and look up the definition of veteran now please) and did this ever turn out well. Brian Propp (30) did a fantastic job bringing production and stability to the first line, while another three veterans Dave Christian 30, Dave Poulin 30, and Bob Gould 31 rounded out the defensive players. There was a reason Crazy Mike gave Poulin, not Sweeny, the task of defending The Moose and I think experience might have played a big part.

Even with an all-star goalie like Andy Moog back stopping the Oilers forward core, they are a few years away from looking like a Stanley Cup Challenger. The trinity is far too young at 18, 20, and 19 years old. Hell they would be the youngest players on this incarnation of the Bruins that we are talking about. But if you add Lander or Vande Velde and Ganger to that group and you have the beginnings of a respectable core of forwards. Now we just have to age them and find the veteran pieces to put around them. This cannot happen soon enough! Keeping Pääjärvi in the minors will keep him for going to UFA another year early. Having a couple veterans would make Eberle and Omark to fight their way on the line up, and having them marinate themselves at the AHL level for at least a season. Plus it would allow Hall at little bit easier ice time, if there were an old man to throw to the Lions while Taylor is finding his feet.

The 1989-90’s Bruin had a young cluster of defensemen: Glen Wesley (20), Greg Hawgood (21), Bob Beers (22), Allen Pedersen (24), and Don Sweeney (23). This fresh meat was mix up with the old veterans of Garry Galley (26), Jim Wiemer (28), and Ray Bourque (28). Wesley was playing a great game at such a young age, but his defense partner was Ray Bourque! That is all I have to say for a comparison: just Ray Bourque. I doubt there is any way you could compare this bear of a line up to the future Edmonton Oiler (until the Oilers find there stud defensemen there may be trouble in Kansas).

There was a couple other thoughts about the Oilers that occurred to me while watching this game: a) what is going on with the Oilers European scouting, b) Esa Tikkanen is missed and never been replaced, c) I had almost forgot that Klima played for this Oiler team until he scored a fantastic overtime goal with a 45 foot stick, and d) cap space, oh cap space. Since most of you have come to some kind of peace regarding b & c, I am going to talk about the other two ideas.


In recent days, we have learned who is replacing the old European scouting staff: Pelle Eklund and Matti Virmanen. My questions is really who is in charge over there? Who do they report to? I would assume that the amateur scouts report to Stu MacGregor and the professional scouts report to an assistant GM. Virmanen is both a professional and amateur scout, while the Oilers have not replaced Prendergast’s Assistant GM position. I don’t understand why the Oilers don’t have a ‘Director of European Scouting’ position like Hakan Andersson does in Detroit (man Andersson also has 3.5 scouts under his direction in Europe). I know it is kind of cutting it close to complete restructure the European scouting system now, but the Oilers had a golden opportunity to do so this summer. I wouldn’t have a problem with Eklund and Virmanen (and I think the second is a particularly good choice) as a stopgap this year, if the Oilers had a long-term strategy in place for the next few years. Why not use MacT last year under contract for him to head up a search committee to locate a Director of European Scouting, and have him do some professional scouting for the Brass?

Speaking of long-term European projects I have one for the Oilers: get more involved in European hockey. Instead of spending money searching for future stars in Europe, why not try to make some money in Europe? I for one would be looking to buy a team in Finland or Sweden, not Jokerit or Frölunda, but one of the smaller teams. You would get the big league team plus their respective junior team, which would provide more opportunity to look at and examine draft eligible players with more eyes. If the Oilers really desired, they could also bring in the European players they drafted to their European team (at a cost of course: I am assuming they could do it with transfer fees, not player trades).

The best part would be the Oilers unique ability to start up more international club team competition. They could hold a junior tournament with the Oil Kings, the junior European team, plus invites before the season starts in September. I am sure one of the OHL teams would like to come, then toss in a junior team from Russia and a high school team from Minnesota. A four or six team tournament in Edmonton would do great on ratings, sell out seats, and build the European franchise brand in Canada (all before NHL training camp opened). Plus there is the abyss of the NHL All Star break: who would not rather watch an international club team tournament instead of the two-day freak show of uncaring & uninspired NHLers. Switch the venue between Edmonton and its European franchise, to help build the brands across the pond fro each other. Think of it as the Edmonton version of the Davos Cup, but we call it the Gretzky Cup and hand out cash prizes to the team and players that win. Start it out small, with a six team tourney and invite another NHL team, plus at least one from each of Finland, Sweden, and Russia (add the two Oiler teams and you have six).

The Oilers would own five hockey teams (the Mighty Oil, the Barons of the AHL, the Oil Kings, the European franchise, and its junior team). I think this would make the Oilers a bigger player within the NHL (since they have more fingers in the hockey pie of the world). It would cost a lot of money (the purchase price of the team, the cash prizes of the international tournaments, and the transfer fees of a couple players to make the Euro team respectable), but it could pay off in the long run: especially if the Oilers could start up meaningful inter-league play because of it.

Cap Space:

With Souray and his 5.4 Million dollar cap hit still on the books the Oilers have over 11 million dollars of cap space (and only Gagner and Cogliano still to sign). Barring any long-term contract for Gagner (which I would suggest, in the neighbourhood of an eight year contract at around 4 million a season), the Oilers should have about 8 million dollars in cap space. The other interesting thing is Chicago (> 4 Million), Boston (>3 Million), Vancouver (>2.5 Million), and Calgary (>2 Million) are all over the cap. Plus NYR will be once they sign Marc Staal. Then there is Atlanta and Colorado clearly beneath the floor, and the Islanders hovering just above the floor.

Why do I bring this up? Cause this means that teams are either going to be trading players or waiving some very good players before the training camp beginnings. The Oiler would have first chance at any player place on waivers since we finished last next season. Is this why Tambo is refusing to sigh veteran forwards, since he is sure someone he likes is going to be available for free within the next two months? Well I hope that is a plan, since I am beginning to believe Benjamin Massey and think he doesn’t have one.

Rangers are looking to move Rozsival and his 5 million a season over the next two years and Redden’s 6.5Million over the next four years. Calgary is looking at Kotalik’s two year 3million dollar contract and maybe one of their UFA dmen as solutions to their cap troubles. I can’t help to think that Chicago would like to move Hossa’s or Campbell’s contracts as well. Van and B-town don’t have the crippling contracts that the others have and most likely will make hockey trades.

No one wants a bloated over priced contract, so those will be the first ones that the big spenders will attempt to get rid of. Tambo should be going fishing these days, but make sure it is not just an old boot he is reeling in but also one that is full of pearls. I am thinking of the Alexander Mogilny trade circa 06-07; what would be the price of a first round pick? Moglinys 3.5 Million dollar one year contract cost a first round pick so what would a Redden’s contract be worth?

I don’t know if I am crazy but I would be trying to get Marc Staal form the Rangers . . . what you say that is impossible. I am sure Slats would at least listen if the deal was something like Marc Staal and Wade Redden for Cogliano, Whitney/Gilbert, and second round pick. That is Reddon’s 6.5 Million a season plus Staal’s 4 million a season for 1.5 million Cogliano's contract and 4 million for one of the two defense men (or at least 5 million a season in cap relief). The Oilers would have the Redden Problem, and he would mostly have to play next year before being bought out, but it fixes the problems of not having a stud defenseman for the future.

The Return of the Monster or: something something something darth-side

This ugly bastard is a mythical creature called the Lernaean Hydra. The Hydra was one of the beasts who tried to kill, crush, eat or otherwise destroy the ultimate of the demi-Gods, Hercules. Now the thing about the Hydra is that it has many heads, each of which breaths poison fire or gas, depending on the interpretation of the myth you happen to be reading. It seems to me that the Oilers have something of a Goalie Hydra in their midst now, with not one, not two, not even three, but four potential goalies to play NHL hockey next year. Like the hydra, if you chop off one of its heads, two new ones will grow. That seemed to be the case last year when our own fire breather (NK, the boozin wall) went down for the count. Suddenly, with talk of Khabi going to chill out in tent city for a while, a new head has grown still, one that just suddenly appeared out of nowhere. Not even JDD, the last remaining head from the original monster has been cut down, so this new growth is kind of strange, like some even darker force emerged, bringing with it another set of myths to be shattered like the dreams of so many Oiler fans in the last 4 years.

This growth is named Martin Gerber, an older veteran of several NHL teams, featuring a couple of lights out regular seasons in Carolina and Ottawa respectively and a tidy career sv. % of .910. By all accounts, his numbers are not world beating, but the biggest moment in his career came while backstopping his native Switzerland in the 2006 Olympics where he stonewalled the supposed world-beaters, Team Canada, winning 2-0 and stopping all 49 shots he faced in the process.

Martin Gerber is not a bad Goalie. In fact his career, though inconsistent at best, has produced 2 30+ win seasons since the lockout, 2 SCF trips and twice representing his country in the Olympics along with numerous IIHF tournaments playing for current Oiler assistant coach Kueger. Darth Gerber, as he has become known, might be exactly what this team needs. Like the Hydra, you cut him down, he bounces back. He is capable of stealing games in a way that none of the other hydra heads are currently capable, though Darth Dubnyk may have that ability soon enough. Gerber also has the veteran presence to help the kids succeed. He's 35 and playing for a chance, making less coin than the worst starting NHL goalie in the last 5 years and fighting for his life. The force may not be as strong in him as it once was, but as a part-time starter and part time teacher of ADDDD, this may be the most interesting and underrated signing Tambi 3.0 has made. Let's not forget, it was Gerber who backstopped the Hurricanes in to the playoffs before Wardo turned in the 2nd best goaltending performance of that season. As such, the Dark Lord's tremendous impact on the development of Cam cannot be denied. If Darth Gerber can teach the dark side of the force to either of these kids, (my vote is for Dubnyk to become his Sith), regardless of how well the team does in the standings, the confidence the rest of the club will have in their goaltenders has the potential to skyrocket.

The Team hasn't had a lot of hope from between the pipes since my favorite wacko left for Long Island (I really miss Roli...everyone that knows me will vouch for that fact), but at least with Gerber back there, even for a little while, we the fans will rarely have to squirm in our seats wondering if the goalie has any idea where his posts are. I can't guarantee that this young and developing Oilers team will make the playoffs this year, but I think with Gerber and DD minding the twine, the Oilers will at least have a chance to win some games, maybe even more games than they lose.

Go Oilers


The Kids (and their replacements)

"And I sat weary beyond espression, exulting like a conqueror, sleepless and entranced as if before a profound, a fateful enigma." - Joesph Conrad, Youth

This is the stunning Linus Omark. In all the hullabaloo about the holy trinity (In the name of Hall, Jorden Eberle, and Pääjärvi ghost) he is starting to get over looked. Is it that he is 'too' old, too small, or just not good enough. (Personally, I think he was just good and not excellent, like the other Oiler Swede, at the last international tournament).
I for one think that the Oilers should be giving him a long look at Training Camp, and maybe even give him more of a chance to make the big roster vis-a-vis of the lesser two divinities. For one, he played in the toughest league outside the NHL last year, and in hard leagues over his career with success. Those season where a lot shorter, which means he may tire past the 40 game mark. He is amazingly gifted as a pure skill forwards, but his size is an issue Most importantly there is the enigma of youth: how will he respond and will his game grow?
Horcoff- Hall - Hemsky
Ganger - Penner - Brule
Cogilano - Omark - NHL Veteran 1
Frazer - Jones - Zorg
Press Box: SMac - Minor leager Checker/Strudwick
injured Reserve: JFJ
Chris Vande Velde - Alexandre Giroux - Eberle
Brad Moran - Teemu Hartikainen - Pääjärvi
AHL Veteran 1 - Liam Reddox -Ben Ondrus
Ryan O'Marra -Gregory Stewart- Colin MacDonald
Press Box: Phillipe Cornet, Toni Rajala, Matt Marquardt, Milan Kytnar

Does this create problems or solve them? It does allow Eberle and Pääjärvi some time to adjust their game in the AHL, but I do not think either of them will go a whole season without seeing some NHL time. If Omark's, or even Brule's, performance stutter steps I could see one of them getting the call up, or if there is an injury on the top two lines (which there will be). But I would seriously suggest that only Hall and Omark stay up at the end of training camp because I want to see veterans playing on the Oilers and young players put into positions that they can succeed in.
Which is why Kytnar, Cornet, and Rajala are sitting in the press box: I see a season in which one or two of these players tries real hard to get into the AHL line up, and once injuries allows them to establish themselves it hopefully will be hard to get take them out. In any case, expecting a regular shift every night is not reasonable based on their last junior seasons, and they all will see time in the ECHL.
So speaking of the kids replacements: The Oilers still need a NHL veteran to play centre or the wing (depending on Cogilano), and I am suggesting Richard Park. No this is nothing new, but I have been suggesting this for a while now in a pseudo-compulsive manner. But there are other veteran problems as well: who the hell is going to play two way centre with offensive upside in the AHL? The depth chart of Centres is weak through out the line up, and the AHL grouping of Vande Velde, Brad Moran, Ryan O'Marra, and Milan Kytnar is not going to cut it. The last one should be in the Press Box to start the year, but we need another Martindale type (big with offensive upside) on that roster. Vande Velde is one of those type of players, and I think he will do a fine job, which is why he is on my first freaking line.
But once injuries start hitting both line ups there will be major player movement on the AHL line up. Now that the goaltending issues are solved at the AHL level (maybe), Bill Scott's first job should be signing a AHL veteran centre with the last remaining veteran player position that the Barons can ice. He does want a winning team in the premier season of the new team, right? I am hoping Strudwick retires, and becomes the assistant to the team of Mike Sillinger and Billy Moores. But that leaves open one of the Press Box positions (hopefully for a checker, but knowing Lowe/Tambo it will be a offensive kid, most likely Omark with Team Canada junior's messiah in his spot on the ice). The dark horses in this race are Reddox and Giroux as they are good players, hard workers, could play some special teams minutes, and desperate to make the NHL. Oh and who doesn't think that the French Ox-like injury machine will start the season on the IR?
Gilbert- Whitney
NHL Veteran 2 - Smid
Foster - Vandermeer
Press Box: Peckham
Shawn Belle - Richard Petoit
Jeff Petry - Alex Plante
Jake Taylor - Taylor Chorney
Press Box: Johan Motin, Jordan Bendfeld

Most regular readers (all five of you) will know that I love the big rough defensive-minded rearguard, but I do not dislike the puckmover (as I had the privilege of playing with a few in farm league pee-wee in Stony Plain). As a result I love defensemen, but this really is not about the kids at all. I just never feel like I can write an article without talking about the defensive blueline: cause I am scared about this. Without Souray, this team desperately needs a NHL calbre defenseman. If we can't mend fences, and i do not think that is possible, we need to find a player for the big league roster. Might I suggest Andreas Lilja, he is only looking for a 1.5 million dollar, one year contract in Detroit, so I am guessing 1.75 to 2 million might be able to get it done in Edmonton.
But what does it do to the prospects on the Barons (I am only including Motin, Plante, Chorney, and Petry), if Souray has to report to the AHL? Oddly enough, is the way I would deal with the Souray situation if I was on the Oilers' Brass (Shown to the right in their natural environment). I think Souray would be a less of a cancer in the AHL, because who would take his bitching seriously if they knew it cost him a job in the NHL.
I would be a crowded blue line with four veterans- Souray, Belle, Petiot, & Taylor- and the prospects would be fighting each other for ice time. This would be the major problem trying to get Petry time on both special teams or having Plante get the EV strength time he needs to develop, plus it creates a problem having Motin not play at all. The only good thing would be once Chorney touches the ice it will be with a veteran that can help him adjust his game.
I have no clues . . . it is a mystery and a debate but it is not about the kids. Unless we end up with a three headed monster and it further reduces the press box players we can carry at the NHL level.

So how much time should each of the youngsters get on the each of the rosters. Hall is going to get all his games at the NHL level and we know this so it is not worth discussing. I would have Eberle with a minimum of 20 games at the NHL level, but also a minimum 30 games at the AHL. Pääjärvi should be about the same as Eberle, but since the Oilers like Eberle based purely on the love the fan base has for him I would say the Pääjärvi is looking at closer to 40 or 50 games at the AHL level. Omark is the real wild card for my; I'd have him at closer to 40 games at the NHL level, but about I am sure he'll need a kick in the pants with a couple 10 game stints in Oklahoma City. As for the Defense, I see Petry and Plante getting at least 5 games in the NHL, and the Oilers will want to keep them in the AHL line up when ever they are not injured. Chorney will get a bunch more in the Press Box, and I could even see a trip to the ECHL if he continues to struggle being used as a motivational tool. Unless Motin takes a big step forward, and I hope he does since I am a big fan, he will most likely not see any NHL time and might even have difficulties making the AHL line up with all the Veterans signed. I think he will play 1 or 2 games at the NHL level, about 40 at the AHL, and at least a baker's dozen in the ECHL. This could be a major problem for his development.
Remember this is what I would do, not what I think the Oilers would do. What would you do if you where Tambo this up coming season?

Wait, I forgot Teemu Hartikainen, and I doubt that would be kosher in the OilerDiaspora. OK, I do not see him getting NHL experience this season. He is going to need to be counted on to provide offense in AHL, especially if that team is going to succeed. So I have his games at 70 in the AHL barring an Injury Situation like last year (then most likely 60 gp at the AHL and 10 at the NHL).