This is not a hockey post: Memo from the Travel Desk 1

Hello faithful readers. Sorry to disappoint but I am hijacking this space for a little while to try and work through some of the craziness that has become my temporary new life in the middle east. I'll get to the Oilers later on, but what really is left to say about their incredible suck?

That photo is a somewhat idyllic shot of my new home and place of learning; Hebrew U in Jerusalem. On the surface it is a lovely campus built on a mountainside. They have been nice to me here so far, even making me a "visiting research fellow" and granting my leftist ass near total access to the campus and its resources. I am living in the dorms, which is already more of a multicultural hodgepodge than all of the city of Kingston put together. Israelis, Japanese, Chinese, me...and the Israelis feature Druze, Christian and Jew. On a day to day basis I hear a minimum of three languages, and usually none of them are English unless I venture out and try to speak with someone.

My new Druze friend, a medical student, has been really great. He's helped me get internet access, found a way to top up my sketchy Israeli mobile phone and is letting me use his kitchen supplies. He calls me "neighbor" in Arabic, and it seems a genuine term of endearment. The others on my floor have been nice enough as well, but few have been as all out kind he has.

UPDATE...

Now onto the bizarre, although I guess from an Israeli standpoint, this is the normal. Guns are everywhere, as are soldiers. So you think to yourselves now, Shepso, stop being so bloody obvious, of course there are?! Yeah, it's true, that is the normal here. The other normal is checkpoints. In the course of my work, I have learned quite a bit on the hyper-securitization of the Israeli state, the near panoptic, biopolitical wet dream for those in power, who use the technology and infrastructure at their disposal to surveil those who have been made other in this society. What I wasn't expecting was the extent to which those inside the state have also been made a part of this architecture. To leave my dorm, I go through a gate. To get onto main campus, I go through a gate, a metal detector and a bag search, every time. Even if it's the same guard who saw me earlier in the day, I go through the process all over again. Headphones out, iPhone turned off, bag passed to armed guard, walk through metal detector, just to get to class in the morning. It's the same to catch a bus to go to Tel Aviv.

This is not to belittle the experience of the Palestinians, whose daily experience is much more than the minor inconvenience of having my bag searched. To quote a good friend and colleague, I am "not actually being made subject to it in the same ways that, say, a Palestinian would." My Jewishness, Canadianness, and Hebrew U student ID shields me from many of the daily humiliations of the checkpoints, though not necessarily the daily grind. There is clearly a difference between the institutional security checks and the actual military checkpoints that are in place throughout the country. I spoke to my mom about this, and she said something like "what do you expect? you know the reasons behind it," and I do, but that doesn't mean I am going to agree. Certainly I am going to find it unsettling and obviously take a position that is critical of such an architecture of control.

Last night I wandered into my new friend's dorm room. He had a couple buddies over, they were playing some soccer game on the PS3, drinking some beers and smoking Argilee (hookah). We talked for a little while. He asked me why I would come all this way to do research and I told him I study the education system and how it pertains to conflict. He laughed and said something like "which one? Here everyone is in conflict. Jews and Arabs, Arabs and Arabs, Arabs and the Arabs not in Israel, Jews and Christians, Arabs and Christians. Sometimes everything works, but everywhere is conflict."  I found it odd that he never once used the word Palestinian in his explanation of his world, but didn't want to press. He laughed again as he offered me a pull of the rich, fruit flavored tobacco (which I politely declined) and said, "at least I know you'll be a good neighbor."

Welcome to the middle east...

....

I discovered to my great joy that my subscription to NHL game-center still works over here and watched the condensed version of last night's game. The 10 minutes was all I needed to see. It was awful. I think the actual number of chances the Oilers had could have been counted on one hand, and throughout the 10 minute version of the game, I think I saw 22 seconds of sustained Oiler pressure vs. a constant, near swarming Blues attack. This was after talking up hockey to my new neighbors and telling them how its a fast paced, back and forth game they'll love. We have a plan to get each other into our respective sports and perhaps even our respective clubs by the time I leave this place. If the Oilers continue to play like that, count me out; my new Druze friend doesn't need his first exposure to be during this streak of ineptitude, let alone this season. Ah the joys of fandom.

Go Oilers

SWS



Post Script-On behalf of the rest of the FFT, I want to wish our comrade and friend BCB a speedy recovery from his injuries sustained at the hands of another brutal regime, this one actually from our own back yard. Be well brother.

Contracts!

Is Hemsky worth a contract extension? Should the Oilers trade him?

Lets assume that the Oilers’ Briantrust would like to resign Hemsky. I do, but do you? What should the contract be?

Here is the list of NHL players that make between 5.5 and 5.0 million dollars: Horcoff (33 years old / $5.5 Million), Kessel (24/ $5.4), Getzlaf (26 / $5.325), Perry (26 / $5.325), Pominville (28 / $5.3), Carter (26 / $5.272), Hossa (32 / $5.275), Ryan (24 / $5.1), Rolston (38 / $5.06), Ribeiro (31 / $5), Gionta (32 / $5), Havlat (30 / $5), Kelser (27 / $5), Plekanec (28 / $5), and Bergeron (26 / $5). The ones that are crossed out either have a—really—long-term contract or are old. The rest have a five or six years left on their contract (except Bergeron: who has 3). Right below this is Alferdsson, Connolly, McDonald, and Umberger all between 4.5 and 5 million a season. People can argue about whether these players are an accurate reflection of Hemsky’s hockey value, but I would say this is not a bad starting place.

There are not a lot of free agents on this list: virtually all of these players where either signed to these contracts by the team that drafted/develop them or where traded for them. This is the position that Hemsky is in with the Oilers (not exactly a home team discount but most of them did not taste the sugary waters of unrestricted free agency). What are the comparables if Hemsky does drink from this magical ocean of money? There is not as many comparisons that have the player going to free agency and getting more than $5.5 million as a winger: Gaborik (29 / $7.5), Kovalchuk (28 / $6.66), Briere (34 / $6.5), Smyth (35 / $6.25), and Cammalleri (29 / $6).

Either way: The contract is basically set between 5 and 6.5 million dollars for about an average of 5 or years (but it could be a hell of a lot longer . . . NHL GMs are crazy).

Hemsky is 28 years old, and lets assume that Hemsky takes a deal which is $5.75 (the middle of the rough guidelines) and is 6 years long: or 34.5 million dollars in all. This means he will have a contract till he is 34 years old—perfect timing not get your last long-term deal. I would think there would be some kind of no-trade clause in there (since Hemsky will be committing to a rebuilding team and giving up the chance to go to free agency).

The structure of the contract makes a big difference. Is it front-end load like we have seen a bunch of contracts recently or a back end load contract like veterans used to sign? I think for buyout reasons (see a convoluted piece I did about that here) or for later trades, I believe the Oilers would want it to be front-end load. Maybe something like this:

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

Base Salary

$6 Million

$5 Million

$4 Million

$3.5 Million

$3 Million

$3 Million

Bonus

$10 Million

Total

$16 Million

$5 Million

$4 Million

$3.5 Million

$3 Million

$3 Million

This structure allows the Oilers to play roughly half of Hemsky’s total contract out before the extension of Hall, Eberle, and Paarajvi kick in. Regardless of what we sign those three for in the future, we are not paying that much cash for them now. This from a hockey operations perspective could be very, very valuable.

While we are at signing extensions, why not target The Nuge’s bunk’n mate on the road: Ryan Smyth. Offer him a four year extension at 2 million dollars a season; you would need to include a no-trade clause to convince him to sign it. But who cares? That would mean the Oilers are paying Smyth & Hemsky a total of $7.75 over the next four season, or $2.6 million less then they are this season. That is some savings to resign one of the kids (add in with one of Eberle’s or Paajarvi’s current salary it is about $4 million, or enough to get one of them signed to a decently long extension). It is addition through addition!

Comparison Montreal vs. Edmonton


So today I was having a coffee and a smoke with my roommate Chris. She is a big Habs fan: which is ok by me, since the Bleu Blanc Rouge was a favorite of my late uncle and the team my father grew up watching. Plus they are kind of famous and the only team with as rich a history as the Oil (excuse me Bruins, Detroit, & Islander fans; but lets be realistic). Then I had this idea, stolen from the Genisus over at Copper & Blue, and do a position-by-position comparison between my two ‘favourite’ teams.



We are going to start with the defense or a couple reasons: it is what Derek did in his comparison; I love defense; and to get the disappointment out of the way early. So here is the list of Right Defense.




Montreal
Oilers
PK Subban (0.875)
Tom Gilbert (4.0)
Josh Georges (2.5)
Cam Barker (2.25)
Jaroslav Spacek (3.833)
Andy Sutton (2.125)
Total: 7.208 – 2.403 per player
Total: 8.375 – 2.792 per player
OK, this is embarrassing . . . I hope that Chris does not read this blog since this should give her enough ammunition to make fun of me for weeks if not years. First of all, the Oilers only have one actual right defenseman on this list (the other two are left defense masquerading as being able to play their off side: I am betting $25 that at least one of Baker or Sutton cannot not). The second is that we are spending more per player (than Montreal) in our biggest position of weakness; even if you switch Petry with Sutton, Montreal still spends less and they have an awfully expensive 3rd pairing option. If you look just at skill (and not money), Montreal has the two best players out of the six—Subban & Georges. Gilbert comes in a distance third, but I think Jarolslav ‘Old Bones’ Spacek is still more dependable than either of Barker or Sutton. This is just Gross . . .
Andrei Markov (5.75)
Ryan Whitney (4.0)
Hall Gill (2.25)
Ladi Smid (2.25)
Theo Peckham (1.075)
Total: 8.984 – 2.995 per player
Total: 7.325 – 2.442 per player
This is getting a little better but still not all that great. I did kinda cherry-pick the left defenseman which make the Oilers look the best, but it is also since these are the players I would pencil in as starting the season (if everyone is healthy) on the port-side. OK, at least the Oilers are spending less money than the Habs, but the Oil also have the worst of the players. Markov is the best of the six players, but Whitney is the next best—by a significant margin—both of these players have severe health risks and I would doubt that both of them play more than 50 games. Gill is more dependable than Smid: again it goes to the Habs. Yemelin has far more upside than Teddy Peck-Man, and the difference in money is so little that Montreal wins this match up again. Overall, the three players from La Belle Province are superior and come in at a reasonable price tag . . . Montreal wins this position again.
Yannick Weber (0.85)
Taylor Chorney (0.735)
Jeff Woywitka (0.65)
Jeff Petry (1.0)
Total: 1.5 – 0.75 per player
Total: 1.735 – 0.868 per player
I have chosen to go with two depth defenders since that is what Derek did in his comparison—also both should play significant amount of games with their respective clubs. To be honest, I think this is about even; both have one good young puck moving Dman (Petry & Weber) at a reasonable price and a tweener (Chorney & Woywitka) that should clear waivers. Maybe Montreal should win this one since they have done this at a better price but lets go with a tie (since I love the Oilers and I love defensemen).
Tomas Plekanec (5.0)
Shawn Horcoff (5.5)
Lars Eller (1.271)
Sam Gagner (2.275)
Scott Gomez (7.357)
Eric Belanger (1.75)
David Desharnais (0.85)
The Nuge (3.775)
Total: 14.478 – 3.62 per player
Total: 13.3 – 3.325 per player
This category is a little harder to do because the depth charts are fucked up. Not the good kind of Fucked Up, but the kind that makes my life harder. Lets start by saying Montreal has the best all around centre in Plekanec . . . his turtleneck power has turned him into a wonderous two-way centre at a reasonable contract (the player that the Oilers were hoping Horcoff would be during the first three years of his giant contract). I would say that the Oilers have the best PKing and faceoff centre in Belanger. Horcoff and Gomez both have a ‘washed-up’ label attached to them after last seasons, but Horcoff is a lot cheaper, so the Oilers win that one. Gagner has more experience than Larry and that should give the Oilers the edge in young offensive centres. The Nuge is just a wild card (could play the season with the Oil, maybe not; could be the best centre on this list in two years but who knows). Desharnais is a filling a spot but is really a tweener. I am going to give this category to the Oilers but by a slim margin: the Oil spend slightly less at this position; they have the best defensive centre; their old man is cheaper and had a better season last year; and the Nuge pushes them over the edge.
Brian Gionta (5.0)
Ales Hemsky (4.1)
Eric Cole (4.5)
Jordan Eberle (1.158)
Andrei Kostitsyn (3.25)
Linus Omark (0.875)
Travis Moen (1.5)
Ryan Jones (1.5)
Total: 14.25 – 3.563 per player
Total: 7.633 – 1.908 per player
Lets start on the fourth line, Moen and Jones have the same amount of money, but one of them is a proven veteran and is better defensively . . . cough, Moen, cough. Returning to the top of the depth chart, Montreal’s Gionta looks better than Hemsky; mainly on ability to stay healthly because I think they both are dynamic game changers. The middle two lines is interesting; Cole & Kostitsyn are more proven players (what ever that means vis-à-vis AK-47) than Eberle and Omark, but I think both pairs have the same amount of offensive ability (all of them) and defensive acumen (with Eberle and Cole having ability and the other two are kind of a liability). Edmonton might win the middle depth based on the price and age of their pair (but that is a big IF). I would go with a tie at right-wing, but at the end of the season Edmonton could be the winner based on price and Montreal could be the winner based on veteran consistency.
Mike Camalleri (6.0)
Taylor Hall (3.75)
Max Pacioretty (1.625)
Ryan Smyth (6.25)
Matheiu Darche (0.7)
Magnus Paajarvi (1.525)
Ryan White (0.625)
Ben Eager (1.1)
Total: 8.95 – 2.238 per player
Total: 12.625 – 3.156 per player
As starboard-side forwards go, Montreal has the best one as of right now: Camallari. I would think that in a few years Hall will be a better offensive star but that is at least one more year away. The Oilers have better depth—especially in the veteran Smyth, who can play both of the special teams and take on tough competition while keeping his head above water. Paajarvi and Pacioretty have the roughly same money and, I would think, have the same boxcars this season (but the Swede-Fin should be better in the long run). Montreal gets advantage in the fourthliners, only, cause they are spending less (& Darche is more defensively responsible than Eager). The Oilers win the Truculence category (if that counts for anything). Overall, the Oilers win this position with more offensive depth and more youth, but they are paying for it against the cap.
Brock Trotter (0.55)
Darcy Hordichuk (0.875)
Andreas Engqvist (0.9)
Gilbert Brule (1.85)
Total: 1.45 – 0.725 per player
Total: 2.725 – 1.363 per player
Now to the depth forwards . . . I really had little idea of who should be the Habs’ depth. I when with Trotter since that is most folks choice and then rounded it out with Engqvist. Trotter is a tweener (with a little, and I mean he is little, KHL experience) while Brule is a former lottery pick that had a shitty year . . . Oilers win that one because of potential. Hordichuk has a specific role (smashing people) while Engqvist is a better ‘hockey’ player . . . I would count that as a tie since Hordichuk is going to get reps and Engqvist is a mystery to me. The price points is clearly on the side of Montreal since they are not going to have bags of money in the press box. Overall I am going with a tie (Brule > Trotter, Hordichuk = Engqvist, 1.45 million > 2.725 million).
Carey Price (2.75)
Devan Dubnyk (0.8)
Peter Budaj (1.15)
The Boozen’ Wall (3.75)
Total: 3.9 – 1.95 per player
Total: 4.55 – 2.275 per player
So, now it comes to the position that most people think is the Oilers’ weakest position. I think it is right defenseman since the Oilers have at least two goaltenders signed (which is one more player in their natural position that the starboard side of the blue). We can say that the Oilers’ starter is cheaper than Montreal’s, but who would rather start Dubnyk over Price. Budaj is a crappy player—Chris was screaming at the TV on free agency day—but he is still better that the old Russian in blue and orange silks this season. Most embarrassing is the cost of the Oilers ineffective duo . . . we spend 0.65 million dollars more than the Habs and they have a starting goaltender (which we do not have) . . . Montreal clear win.
Right Defense
Montreal
Left Defense
Montreal
Depth Defense
Tie
Centre
Oilers
Right Wing
Tie
Left Wing
Oilers
Depth Forwards
Tie
‘Tender
Montreal
Best Overall:
Montreal